Discussion: The upper jet (analyzed at 250mb) remains to the S of NJ as we freeze inside of a trough. The polar and pacific jets will be coupling by Wednesday which will help drive the expected clipper system Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. NJ should stay under below average geopotential heights (analyzed at 500mb) through this week and including the weekend. A second clipper is possible towards the end of this weekend, possibly a Sunday into Monday kind of thing. But let’s focus on the first clipper this Wednesday-Thursday for now.
Obviously, the lower levels are cold and they will remain that way up to the clipper arrival Wednesday PM. A clipper is a northern stream system at the end of the day, with it’s own Norwegian Cyclone Model including a warm sector ahead of a cold front. This is how we can see SW winds but still remain cold enough for snow. This clipper system’s center is expected to track to the N of NJ with precipitation on its southern extent affecting NJ. I think most of NJ sees snow from this however I only see stickage likely N of I-78. Given the moisture-starved nature of a clipper, areas N of I-78 have the best chance to see a coating to an inch or two at most, especially NWNJ elevations. Areas S of I-78 have the chance to see snowfall but will have a warmer surface likely preventing stickage. The atmosphere is very cold though above the surface/lower levels (for all of NJ) so snow is the expected p-type despite the above-freezing surface. For areas N of I-78, especially NWNJ elevations, this will unfortunately time with a slick Thursday morning commute. Not a snowstorm but a coating to an inch or two on a cold surface could present delays, delayed openings, and other reasons to allow for a little more travel time. Another cold jet then reloads after the clipper clears out and should make for a cold and windy Thursday into Friday. There’s then another clipper chance between Saturday and Monday that I will focus more on once the first clipper clears out.
I am also seeing a transient warmup next Mon-Wed where the pattern moderates before reloading later next week with more cold. The pattern looks very active from now-forward. A system every 3-4 days. The negative phase of the EPO should continue to keep the E US in the prolonged cold with transient moderation pattern well through December. Winter of 2013-2014 was very similar to this for an analog reference.
In English: This week will remain cold through the weekend. Light snow is possible Wed PM into Thurs AM and then again later this weekend. Neither event will be big snow…more of a coating to an inch or so and mainly N of I-78. Warmer to start next week and colder later next week as the active pattern continues.
Forecast
Monday (Dec 2) high temperatures should max in the lower-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a very small chance of lake effect flurries possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts (most of NJ down into 20s).
Tuesday (Dec 3) high temperatures should again max in the lower-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-teens to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts (most of NJ down into 20s).
Wednesday (Dec 4) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most NJ locations, maybe mid-40s along the ECNJ/SENJ coast. Skies should transition from clear to cloudy. Winds should be breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 30s with light snowfall possible. Better chance for accumulation in NWNJ where ground will be closer to freezing.
Thursday (Dec 5) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Overnight light snowfall could change to rain for CNJ/SNJ as the day warms but all precip should shut off by noon, if not earlier. Again, NWNJ elevations are going to do the best regarding light accumulations of snow. Not expecting any stickage S of I-78 or SE of I-287. Winds should be gusty out of the W/NW starting afternoon hours. Overnight lows should fall into the 35-30 range statewide as W/NW winds rock to the NW but remain breezy-to-gusty into Friday.
Friday (Dec 6) high temperatures should max out in the 30s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall below 30 for most of NJ and possibly below 20 for NWNJ elevations and some of interior SNJ Pine Barrens.
An early look at the weekend (Dec 7-8) indicates more cold conditions. Highs will struggle to break 40. Overnight lows in 20s for most of NJ…lower-30s for coasties. I’m tracking another clipper capable of delivering light snow later this weekend. We could then be looking at a transient moderation in temperature to start next week before the colder pattern reloads again later next week. I’m watching that colder reload period for the next potential snow producer, but models are all over the place from this range. They are all seeing something though. For now, we have this Wednesday night into Thursday morning for light snow and possibly the same this weekend. Have a great week, stay warm and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC