Tropical Conditions Return

Discussion: It’s no secret the humidity is back. We had a few great feeling days earlier in the weekend, but that air mass has left. A trough is decaying over the Mid-Atlantic US, giving way to higher geopotential heights by the weekend. This is creating a W/SW upper-level flow for this week with more of a S/SW flow at the surface…a recipe for another heat wave in the Wed-Fri window. Temps then back off a bit for the weekend but still warm and humid with ample shower/thunderstorm chances. Today’s (Tuesday) evening/overnight thunderstorm chances seem like the highest of the week though we’re looking at a decaying stormfront coming out of PA. Once this crosses the Delaware River into NJ, weakening is expected. Hopefully we can still get some downpours out of it for agricultural interests. But it doesn’t look like a severe setup. Maybe just weak-to-strong thunderstorms below severe criteria. The entire rest of this week, including the weekend however, looks hazy, hot, and humid with rain/storm chances every day, likely during PM hours. I am also watching a potential tropical disturbance currently forming E of the Lesser Antilles. Some model tracks take it close to the SE US as a more organized tropical system in the Aug 4-6 window (next Sunday-Tuesday). The guidance which does so then re-curves it back out into the Atlantic Ocean to the S of OBX latitude. Such a case would mean no direct impacts to NJ (wind, surge, rain, etc.). Secondary impacts however could ensue (enhanced surf along ECNJ/SENJ coasts, rip currents, radiative swell/tidal cycles) in the Aug 6-7 timeframe. Just something I’m casually watching.

Tuesday (July 30) high temperatures are maxing the highest in NENJ in the 83-88 range while coastal regions hang closer to 80. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds with elevated humidity. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening but far from widespread and likely non-severe for most, if not all. Winds are light-to-breezy (breeziest for SENJ coast). Overnight lows should stay just above 70 statewide as isolated shower and thunderstorm chances persist.

Wednesday (July 31) high temperatures should reach 90+ for many areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions likely held in the 80-85 range. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy with more isolated showers and thunderstorms around (far from widespread – lottery cells). Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 again for most of NJ. Elevations might just dip into upper-60s.

Thursday (Aug 1) high temperatures should reach 90+ for most of NJ, possibly even some shore points. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some of interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with 100. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with uncomfortably high levels of humidity. Heat exhaustion/stroke caveats will be in place as heat indices easily push north of 100, possibly 105+. Can’t rule out a very isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm but most should just see a hazy, hot, and humid day. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

Friday (Aug 2) looks like a near-repeat of Thursday. High temperatures should reach the mid-90s+ for most of NJ, with coastal areas flirting with 90. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with uncomfortably high levels of humidity. Heat exhaustion/stroke caveats will be in place as heat indices easily push north of 100, possibly 105+. Can’t rule out isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm but most should just see a hazy, hot, and humid day. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 3-4) indicates the heat wave breaking a little. Highs in the 80s instead of highs in the 90s but still humid and with shower/thunderstorm chances possible any day/anytime. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC