Thunderstorms Approaching!

Discussion: Some AM rain pushed through this morning. We’ve been swampy since with sun and clouds…all as expected so far. Now the second stormfront is approaching NJ from the W.

Thunderstorm dynamics are far superior to the W and SW of NJ. Therefore, areas like Baltimore/DC should see stronger storms than NJ does. And given that storms will be pushing from W to E through dusk with loss of solar heating, WNJ has a chance to see stronger storms than ENJ.

Today we have diurnal instability, discernable from adequate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). We have adequate wind shear and a lifting trigger of the stormfront itself. In other words, all ingredients are on the table for at least severe thunderstorms, possibly a tornado.

It’s never wise to dismiss a tornado threat. But it is important to know that tornadoes are extremely isolated events. Straight-line winds can be just as destructive when compared to the typical EF0-EF1 tornadoes we see from events like this in Jersey. I’ve seen straight-line winds flip cars on video before. Regardless of whether today’s winds end up being straight-line or tornadic, please take them seriously in the interest of safety.

It seems like these storms will knock on WNJ’s door around 7pm and clear ENJ’s coast by midnight or just after. Again, they will be pushing from W to E if you are following on radar. Once through this should set up a beautiful Tuesday-Thursday with a break from humidity and reasonable temperatures.

In English: Expect rain and thunderstorms to push through NJ tonight from W to E. They should arrive at WNJ border around 7pm and then clear ENJ coast by midnight or just after. Expect periods of heavy downpour, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. A small tornado chance is on the table and will have to be diagnosed/alerted in real-time. It is best to be inside tonight with common sense preparations in place. This includes a safe place to shelter, batteries for the flashlights, candles, etc. Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best. I’ll be posting radar analysis later this evening as the stormfront closer approaches. For now, let’s see how it goes for areas like Baltimore/DC/EPA first. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC