Through the Rest of October

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of October 2017 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ – Newark Basin), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 4-7 day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends is what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

Higher Elevation Discussion: This region is expected to start on the warmer side for the first third of October (well into 70s) before taking another chilly dip in the Oct 11-15 period (highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s). Temperatures are then expected to moderate again in the Oct 16-19 period (high near-70) before dropping again in general to close out October (highs in the upper-50s/lower-60s). This up and down pattern is typical for the current pattern transition from La Nina to a neutral ENSO status. Each period of moderation will be less warm as each dip in temperature becomes more pronounced. It will however roller-coaster in a general downward trend through Halloween Weekend. The entire state is hurting for precipitation and not much is expected outside of the mild-to-cold transition surrounding Oct 8-12. We might see one or two coastal lows or even a nor’easter spin up in October. This would help some but is not guaranteed to happen.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: This region is expected to start on the warmer side for the first third of October (upper-70s/lower-80s) before taking another chilly dip in the Oct 11-15 period (highs near-60/lows in the lower-40s). Temperatures are then expected to moderate again in the Oct 16-19 period (highs in the lower-70s) before dropping again in general to close out October (highs in the 60s/lows in the upper-30s/lower-40s). This up and down pattern is typical for the current pattern transition from La Nina to a neutral ENSO status. Each period of moderation will be less warm as each dip in temperature becomes more pronounced. It will however roller-coaster in a general downward trend through Halloween Weekend. The entire state is hurting for precipitation and not much is expected outside of the mild-to-cold transition surrounding Oct 8-12. We might see one or two coastal lows or even a nor’easter spin up in October. This would help some but is not guaranteed to happen.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

Coastal Region Discussion: This region is expected to start on the warmer side for the first third of October (upper-70s/lower-80s) before taking another chilly dip in the Oct 11-15 period (highs in the 60s/lows in the 40s). Temperatures are then expected to moderate again in the Oct 16-19 period (highs in the lower-70s) before dropping again in general to close out October (highs in the 60s/lows in the 40s). This up and down pattern is typical for the current pattern transition from La Nina to a neutral ENSO status. Each period of moderation will be less warm as each dip in temperature becomes more pronounced. It will however roller-coaster in a general downward trend through Halloween Weekend. Keep in mind that this region is shares a border with ocean water still in the upper-60s/lower-70s. Therefore marine influence (warmer overnight temperatures, cooler daytime high temperatures, and fog) is very much on the table this time of year. The entire state is hurting for precipitation and not much is expected outside of the mild-to-cold transition surrounding Oct 8-12. We might see one or two coastal lows or even a nor’easter spin up in October. This would help some but is not guaranteed to happen.

Tropical Discussion: As we’ve seen in the past, tropical storms can have impact to New Jersey in October. Is is more rare than in late-August/September but it is certainly possible. No tropical threats to New Jersey currently exist. It is typical this time of year for tropical storms to have Western Caribbean origin instead of Cape Verde origin. So if anything is going to ride up our coast, it would likely come out of the Western Caribbean. I’ll be keeping an eye on this should it happen but again, nothing is showing in the near-future.

Everyone have a great October and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™