The “What Winter?” Sunsets

Discussion: Of every 10 years, about 1-2 winters feature way-below average snowfall and in some cases a big goose egg. This winter was one of those. It was nice however to see parts of NNJ squeeze out some snow accumulation yesterday. Snow lovers throughout the rest of NJ remain weighed, measured, and found wanting as winter begins to sunset. I know, I know, many of you are saying, “what winter?” Trust me, as an inhabitant of SENJ, I feel your pain. On the other hand, if you don’t like snow, this has been an amazing winter for you. Love and fear will forever comprise the double-edged sword of weather emotion,

So where do we go from here? Up. Temperatures are rising. Sun angle is climbing. Daylight length is increasing. Before we know it, we’ll be tracking heat waves and thunderstorms.

Just one final storm signal (~March 22) that I am casually monitoring but with very little promise. It looks like we’re going to have a low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico which will cross the SE US and eject into the Atlantic Ocean. A few days ago this system was impacting the Mid-Atlantic US, including NJ, with precipitation and wind. Today, the trend has been a system that doesn’t come up the coast at all. If the status quo remains, then it will be a non-issue. If the system trends back further northward along the east coast, then we could be looking at a coastal storm.

In order for snow to fall and stick on March 22, we would need a cold air mass + hard snowfall overnight. Right now I’m not seeing either. In the event that this system does trend back northward, then we’re likely looking at a rain and wind event mostly for SNJ/SENJ/ECNJ. If you’ve been following the baseball analogy I like to use for winter, this will be the last out of the 9^th inning…and we have the worst batter of the lineup at the plate. Again, little promise.

We’re most likely finished with big snow potential this winter. The teleconnections look like crap (+AO/+NAO/-PNA/etc.)…no available cold, no blocking, no W US ridge, etc. The weak La Nina has died and we’re possibly heading into an El Nino by summertime. Traditionally that would mean a hot and dry summer with a “watch out” caveat on hurricane season. But we’ll see.

The rest of March should remain cold relevant to climatological averages but not cold enough to support snow. In January, we can still run a few degrees above average and get snow. In March, we need to run almost 10 degrees below average to support snow and I’m just not seeing it. Average highs for march start in low-40s in the beginning of the month and end in low-50s by the end of the month.  What we’re seeing is upper-30s to start and maybe upper-40s to end. So maybe 5 degrees below average in general each day. This sucks for a snow lover with spring fever too warm for snow and too cold for spring activities. But have patience, the warm stuff is coming.

We’ll see a little teaser transient period of warmth tomorrow into Friday but then back to colder conditions by the end of the weekend. High pressure will be moving from SW of NJ (cold position) out into the ocean (warm position). The return flow will couple with an approaching warm sector and drive temps up into the 50s, possibly 60s across NJ Thursday and Friday. Once the front is through (mid-weekend) then NW flow will re-establish. I’ll allow a 1% chance of flurries with ending spotty rain showers on Saturday.

I’ll get a more proper weekend outlook posted likely Friday morning. Just wanted to let you know that we’re warmer tomorrow and Friday before returning to cold by Sunday.

In English: Winds will gradually subside and should return to a status of calm by tomorrow morning. Not as bad tonight as last night but still a little breezy. Tomorrow and Friday look dry and mild with temps into the 50s/60s. On Saturday a cold front should push through with some spotty showers. There’s a 1% chance the rain ends as non-accumulating flurries. We then turn colder Saturday night into Sunday before moderating next week to highs in the upper-40s/lower-50s and lows in the 30s/40s. Watching next Wednesday for a potential coastal low to bring rain and wind to SNJ/SENJ but this has been trending towards a miss to the S altogether. If it comes further N, it could produce snow but I am far from betting on it. There is a lack of adequate cold air mass and surface temps look too warm. Chances are that we’re finished with snow until winter 2023-2024 aside from any transient/isolated lake-effect snow showers or something along those lines in a late-winter/early-spring transient cold period. March 22 will be the 3^rd out of the 9^th inning with a horrible batter at the plate. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC