Discussion: Idalia tracked across the SE US after delivering a major hurricane landfall early Wednesday morning in the W FL big bend area. Idalia is now pushing out to sea off the S OBX area. High pressure is approaching which will hold Idalia’s remnants to the S and E of NJ. I’m seeing the start of frontal banding/comma head so I imaging Idalia will be classified as a subtropical or extra-tropical cyclone soon. For now the NHC still has it as a tropical storm (downgraded from hurricane status). The only effects New Jersey should see today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) are rip currents and swell heights coming in from the SE. Otherwise just sunny and breezy along the shore, not from the storm but from initial high pressure N/NE flow. That should be it for the tropics for the next week or so. This next month is peak hurricane season so I would expect more activity to form in the longer range.
New Jersey is subject to a high pressure cycle this Labor Day Weekend. Cooler and drier N/NW winds today (Thursday) and tomorrow (Friday) from front-side flow, warmer and tranquil Saturday with high overhead, then heat and humidity builds Sunday and Monday from return flow. So the weekend starts off pleasant and dry and transitions to hot and humid. All likely dry though with high pressure in place. The only wildcard would be an aggressive sea breeze moving off the ocean and sparking showers/storms for ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. But I’m not really feeling that given the convective inhibition from the sinking air (high pressure). There’s a much higher probability the weekend stays dry meaning rainless/stormless.
Today’s (Thursday) temps should flex somewhere in the 70s this afternoon before dropping into the 50s tonight with low dews (upper-40s/lower-50s). This might spell hoodie weather for some tonight. Coastal regions will likely stay in the 60s since ocean temps are in the mid-70s…not a warm summer night given the dews and N/NE flow. I’ve seen worse fog recipes. The weekend outlook is then laid out as follows:
Friday (Sept 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. A few interior CNJ/SNJ spots might just break 80 while coastal regions hang closer to 75. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Rip currents and rough surf are expected so please use caution if swimming. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Saturday (Sept 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Coastal regions should max around 75. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (Sept 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most NJ locations. Maybe a few 90s away from the ocean. Closer to 80 along the coasts. Skies should be mostly sunny with humidity returning. Winds should be near-stationary, perhaps a light breeze in any direction. Overnight lows should stay above 60 statewide.
Monday (Sept 4 – Labor Day) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should near 90, at least mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Stay hydrated and as cool as your situation allows. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at next week indicates the hot and humid stuff lasting through mid-week but still dry. Then either one or a series of cold fronts should push through and return temps cooler by the weekend. The tropics should take a break for the next week or so. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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