The Heat is On (July 6-10)

Discussion: The upper-jet should remain positioned well to the N of NJ this week. 500mb height anomalies should stay slightly positive (ridging) for the E US. At the surface this spells out more warm, humid and slightly unsettled conditions…meaning mostly sun and clouds but certainly the chance for afternoon-evening pop-up showers and thunderstorms once diurnal surface heating maximizes during afternoon hours. These conditions should spill over into at least the first part of the weekend. We might have a fast-moving coastal disturbance threatening the Jersey Shore this Friday but that’s something I’ll be monitoring closely in the next few days. Looking as far ahead as I am comfortable doing, Sunday into early next week looks a little stormier since a strong jet streak will be overhead.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (July 6) high temperatures should break 90 for many locations. Even coastal regions might get close to 90 before any sea breeze sets up. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms possible (maybe severe). Humidity should be noticeably felt. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Tuesday (July 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms possible especially during afternoon-evening hours. Elevated humidity should linger. Winds should remain light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Wednesday (July 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible especially during afternoon-evening hours. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should remain light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Thursday (July 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Can’t rule out a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during afternoon-evening hours but Thursday looks the least unsettled of the week. Winds should remain light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas.

Friday (July 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible especially during afternoon-evening hours. Heavier rain is possible off the ocean from a passing coastal disturbance. I’ll provide additional detail this week as we closer approach. Humidity should remain elevated. Winds should be light out of the E/SE away from the ocean but possibly windier along the immediate coast from the coastal system. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most areas as rain is expected to move in.

An early look at the weekend indicates warm and unsettled conditions sustaining. Saturday looks a little rainier and Sunday a little stormier but neither day looks like a washout. Let’s take another look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC