The Heat is On!

Discussion: First, an acknowledgement to those who have bravely fallen for our country. I hope everyone had a great weekend and enjoyed all that the fought-for freedom allows us to. It’s now go time for the warmer months of the year and the atmosphere is wasting no time starting tomorrow (Tuesday). The jet stream should stay well to the N of NJ this week. An upper level ridge will flex Tues-Weds before flattening out for Thursday into the weekend. This likely means a hot Tuesday transitioning to a mild/pleasant start to the weekend. As far as rain and storms go, we’ll probably see a capping inversion on Tuesday given the expanded nature of the troposphere under the ridge and the temperature profile in general. This means that even though the sun will heat the surface, that hot surface air will have trouble rising within other hot hair. It’s a natural thunderstorm stunting mechanism that typically plays out on front-less hot days like Tuesday. About the only thing that could break the cap would be an aggressive sea breeze front plowing cold surface air into the inland hot air mass. So perhaps a chance for some GSP storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. AN overnight backdoor cold front could then move in from the E/NE and cool things down for a few days. Wednesday looks mostly nice with just some iso action. Thursday PM is the next unsettled period of interest as a cold front pushes through NJ from NW to SE. This would then, in-theory, set up another beautiful weekend after a transitional Friday.

Overnight temperatures tonight (Monday night) should struggle to fall below the upper-60s statewide. Skies should be clear and that will set up a very warm Tuesday.

Tuesday (May 31) high temperatures should easily push into the 90s for most areas away from the ocean, especially WNJ. Coastal regions should hang in the 80s. Elevated humidity should make it feel even hotter. Skies should be mainly sunny with a few clouds here and there. A sea breeze front could produce clouds and iso pop-ups along the Garden State Parkway axis of CNJ/SNJ but that’s about it. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (June 1) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s for most, maybe low-80s for typical warmer NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Maybe a few isolated pop-ups. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.

Thursday (June 2) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should start sunny with a few clouds but transition to clouds, rain, and thunderstorms by evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (June 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Skies should be mixed with more storm chances, especially during afternoon hours. At this point SNJ seems favored for storms over NNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s from elevations to coasts as conditions generally improve for the rest of the weekend.

An early look at the weekend indicates warm and pleasant conditions. Highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s with reasonable humidity levels. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC