Thanksgiving Week Forecast (Nov 21-25)

More volatile weather should continue through Thanksgiving and into the weekend. Let’s break it down…

Nerdy Disco: Lower 500mb heights are moving eastward and out of the region as higher heights move in fromt the west. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. This seems like the volatile pattern we should expect in closing out November. Each period of moderation should continue to diminish in both intensity and duration. Therefore, we’ll stay on the colder side through Thursday morning and might even see some wintry precip Wednesday night into Thanksgiving AM. We should then moderate just a hair for Thanksgiving PM hours through Friday evening. On Saturday, another cold front should coincide with the return of lower 500mb heights. Therefore, because of this meridional flipping and flopping, precipitation chances exist Wednesday night into Thursday with an even more unsettled look through the weekend. More cold NW winds are fairly confident. Precipitation could be scattered and random. Winter is still expected to kick it up a gear once we’re in December and the Pacific jet stream relaxes. Once that happens, the colder air to our north will be allowed to sink down and set up our colder and snowier pattern. Until then we should continue the volatile pattern flops with shrinking periods of moderation and expanding periods of colder air mass.

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Monday (Nov 21) high temperatures should be held to the 40s for most. Parts of NNJ/CNJ might fail to escape the 30s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with flurries possible under heavier clouds. Winds should be strong and gusty out of the W/NW (15-25mph sustained with gusts to 40mph). Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.

Tuesday (Nov 22) high temperatures should again be held to the 40s for most. Parts of SNJ/SENJ might reach 50. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW (10-20mph sustained with gusts to 35mph). Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with immediate coastal areas possibly staying just above 30.

Wednesday (Nov 23) high temperatures should again be held to the 40s for most. Parts of SNJ/SENJ might reach 50. Skies should be mostly sunny for lower elevations with some clouds possible for NNJ elevations. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 20s. Light precipitation is possible overnight which now looks like some wintry precipitation could mix in. Will have to monitor this on radar and live observations.

Thursday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. NNJ elevations might be held in the 40s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with scattered precipitation possible. Again, we’ll have to monitor radar and live observations for wintry precipitation mixed within. This would be more likely in the morning as temperatures are expected to rise by afternoon. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 30s.

Friday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most. NNJ elevations might be held in the 40s. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most with immediate coastal areas possibly staying in the lower-40s.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions. I’m seeing scattered precipitation surrounding another cold frontal passage on Saturday. This would likely make the first half of the weekend wetter and the last half windier. Let’s revisit in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™