Temps Continue to Roller Coaster

Discussion: The upper jet will dip and flatten out into more of a zonal flow this weekend. Geopotential heights, analyzed at 500mb, will correlate with this with a reduction in positive anomalies to near-average. Far from a deep cold trough dive, but these upper-level actions will at least allow the return to a seasonally average feel. Rain is in the forecast for Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Nothing drought busting but should at least mitigate some of the fire risk. Most models are throwing down up to a quarter inch of rainfall. We then see another anomalous warm spike day on Monday afternoon where most of NJ will flirt with 70+ (see above roller coaster image) followed by a cooler Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to a synoptic event. Models are indicating a W US ridge/E US trough for Thursday/Friday (Nov 14-15). This could mean a synoptic rainmaker for NJ and possibly the season’s first snow. The more probable scenario is a cold rain for NJ which would be much welcomed. Perhaps the Catskills of NY and some of New England cash in on a wet snow that struggles to accumulate below 1800 feet…that type of thing. Either way, winter is coming but I’m glad to see some modeled rain in the next 7 days. There’s a hurricane in the center of the Gulf of Mexico (Rafael) but that’s expected to drive W/SW and dissolve in the W Gulf…no impact to NJ whatsoever.

Friday (Nov 8) high temperatures are maxing (as of Friday 2pm) a few degrees on either side of 70. Skies are mostly sunny. Winds are light out of the W/NW but could become a little breezy through the rest of the afternoon. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Nov 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most of NJ (closer to 60 along the ECNJ/SENJ coast). Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. A much more fall-feeling day. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 for most of NJ with coasties closer to 40. A much more fall-feeling night.

Sunday (Nov 10) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to lower-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should become cloudier throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S/SW (breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coast). Overnight lows should hang near-50 as rain moves in as early as evening hours. Yes…rain.

An early look at next week (Nov 11-15) indicates a possible wet start early Monday morning followed by a nice Monday mid-day through at least Wednesday. Temps appear seasonally average (highs in 50s lows down to 30s/40s). More rain is expected from more of a widespread rain system Thursday-Friday to set up a colder/drier weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC