Temps and Humidity Rebound (July 31-Aug 4)

This week should start warm and pleasant but end hot and muggy. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The main players driving this week’s weather are first, an area of high pressure moving from the Great Lakes towards Bermuda and second, a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes into Canada. The high pressure will keep the region pleasant today (Monday) and some of tomorrow as anticyclonic northerly winds approach on the E side of the high. Once the high has passed New Jersey and is out in the ocean (by Wednesday), southerly winds will return and humidity will build for the second part of the week. The low pressure system will then contribute to the warmth and humidity by warm-sectoring New Jersey from Thursday until the frontal passage comes through sometime on Saturday. Sea breeze fronts and pre-frontal troughs are capable of sparking afternoon t-storms in the warm sector but the cold front will be the last chance for such. Therefore, Saturday night and Sunday will likely see the same kind of drier relief that we’re currently experiencing. Get used to this kind of flip flop transition. Pleasant periods will become a bit longer each time and hot/muggy periods will shorten. We’re well over the hill and on our way towards the cooler second half of the year. The late summer/early fall period represents my favorite weather conditions of the year.

Monday (July 31) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Tuesday (Aug 1) high temperatures should break 90 away from the ocean. Coastal regions might hang in the lower 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny but humidity should begin trickling in. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the lower-60s.

Wednesday (Aug 2) high temperatures should break 90 away from the ocean. Coastal regions might hang in the lower 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with noticeably increased humidity. With that comes the chance for isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the lower-60s.

Thursday (Aug 3) high temperatures should flirt with breaking 90 away from the ocean. Coastal regions might hang in the upper-70s/lower 80s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid. Afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms are again possible. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the lower-60s.

Friday (Aug 4) high temperatures should again flirt with breaking 90 away from the ocean. Coastal regions should hang in the upper-70s/lower 80s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid. Afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms are again possible. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-60s/lower-70s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the lower-60s.

An early look at the weekend indicates cooler temperatures with a drier feel (eventually) as we anticipate another cold front passage. Therefore a short disruptive period of rain and thunderstorms would in theory occur within normal sunny summery weather for the weekend. Let’s take a look at that mid-week. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™