Temperatures to Moderate (Oct 2-6)

Discussion: The upper-level pattern is fairly straightforward this week. A strong ridge will build over SE Canada/NE US between Monday and Thursday. At the lower-levels this means dry sinking air with warmer surface temperatures surrounding a dominant area of high pressure. Peak ridge intensity is modeled for Tuesday-Wednesday which means Thursday will likely be the warmest day once propagated to the surface. A trough over Canada is then expected to beat down the ridge in the Thursday-Friday period. Upper-level heights are then expected to re-build for Saturday and Sunday, for what looks like another warm stretch into next week. There are some early indications of ~Oct 12^th being the next slap of fall feelz with a strong cold front passage. Aside from some light frontal precipitation this ~Thursday, not much rain is expected in confident foreseeable future.

Monday (Oct 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 40s.

Tuesday (Oct 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with NNJ elevations likely dipping into the 40s.

Wednesday (Oct 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. 80 is not impossible for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a small uptick in humidity. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.

Thursday (Oct 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ has a good chance of pushing into the lower-80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a chance of passing showers. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s for most. NNJ elevations a few degrees cooler.

Friday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny with a chance of passing showers (more so for NNJ than SNJ). Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with immediate coastal areas hanging in the lower-50s.

An early look at the weekend indicates a pleasant but cloudier Saturday followed by a warmer and sunnier Sunday. Warmer temperatures and lack of significant precipitation should continue well into next week before a possible cold front next weekend. Let’s revisit all of this in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™