Temperatures Reload

Discussion: The weekend is here but first, let’s recap. It’s still technically calendar Fall for 15 days (until Dec 21). We’re only 6 days into meteorological winter. Ocean sea surface temperatures off NJ are in the mid-40s. Unless a freak incident occurs (December 2009, Halloween 2011, the week after Sandy 2012, and a handful of others), snow is incredibly hard to achieve for the coastal plain of NJ (along and SE of I-95/NJTP) until after Christmas. Climatology has a funny invisible way of just fighting it. This time of year, it’s much more probable for snow to fall and stick to the N and W of I-95, and mainly just elevations N of I-78 and NW of I-287). Bottom line, it’s still very early folks. In my typical baseball analogy I like to use each winter, we’re still in batting practice but let’s agree that NWNJ is swinging the best, as they typically do this time of year.  

I’m actually very impressed with the air masses that made their way into NJ with two Arctic fronts since Thanksgiving. We dealt with a warm sector of the clipper which roasted out most of NJ from SW 35-45F flow. NWNJ saw some though. And just before that (Nov 21), parts of NWNJ elevations saw a lot of snow.  This is all giving me the feel of a cold and snowy upcoming winter (overall – there will always be periods of moderation). But again, we all need to take a step back, relax, and realize 1) It’s early and 2) We still have a moisture problem/drought.

The cold will take its foot off the gas after this weekend. Yesterday and today was another cold shot but that should gradually moderate by the time we get through Sunday. Then, next Monday through about Wednesday/Thursday, we’ll see a full moderation of temperatures with periods of rain likely. My next target for a potential snow event is Thursday, Dec 12. It looks a bit warm right now but has been ticking colder on each model run. There seems to be some powerful upper-level dynamics involved of which the timing of two separate streams will determine snow vs rain for New Jersey. I will casually watch this over the weekend. Beyond that is simply too uncertain as models are swinging back and forth trying to handle the fluctuating EPO/PNA situation.

For this weekend, the second of two light snow chances I mentioned earlier this week, will either just miss or graze extreme NNJ with some snowfall potential. This system has tracked N to impact New England rather than the Mid-Atlantic. Extreme N Sussex still has a chance for something though. Otherwise, this weekend starts the coldest it will be (tonight) and gradually warms into the warmup early this week…temperatures reload.

In English: This weekend starts cold and dry and ends warmer, possibly wet to start next week. Light snow could graze extreme NNJ Saturday night into Sunday. Anything from a coating to an inch or so would be possible for extreme N Sussex County. Likely nada for the rest of NJ. Monday-Wednesday then looks warmer with rain here and there. Watching Thursday Dec 12 for rain to possibly change to snow and accumulate. More on that after this weekend.

Forecast

Friday (Dec 6) high temperatures have maxed in the low-to-mid 30s. Some NNJ elevations have even hung in the upper-20s. Skies should remain clear. Winds have relaxed some but should remain breezy at times overnight as lows bottom out in the 18-28 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Dec 7) high temperatures should reach near-40 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Light snow is possible mainly for extreme NNJ only Saturday night into Sunday morning…likely in the coating to an inch range if anything. Winds should finally relax out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 28-38 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Dec 8) high temperatures should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should start cloudy but improve by afternoon-forward. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Dec 9-13) indicates warmer temps Monday-Wednesday (relative to what we’ve just experienced). Highs in the 40s (for NWNJ) 50s (for the rest of NJ) and lows in the 30s/40s. Decent chance of much needed rain here and there in the Monday-Wednesday period. We then turn colder for Thursday with rain potentially turning to snow. I will report more on this Monday as I’ll just casually monitor through the weekend. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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