Temperatures Moderate (Dec 19-23)

This week should start colder but moderate heading into the weekend. Let’s break it down…

Disco: Our region should be dominated mostly by high pressure this week. This should keep it mostly dry. A few disturbances should float by to our N but as of now most moisture stays with them to our N. The true Arctic air responsible for our recent cold snaps will retreat towards the north pole for a while as the polar vortex strengthens and consolidates. There is some elongation of the PV in the extreme long-range but from now until just after New Years, we appear to lose the extreme cold. Also the Pacific teleconnections are in an unfavorable state regarding Mid-Atlantic US snow storm setup. Unless we get some tropical dateline forcing in the Pacific (MJO 7-8) to aid the development of W US ridging, we’ll remain this way. While a snow storm can still happen with milder, but still cold enough, Canadian air and a perfectly timed/position low…such would be a thread the needle situation. The more rational outlook, for the period starting this week and lasting through the holidays into the New Year, are temperature swings between slightly-above average and slightly-below average with fast-passing progressive disturbances due to lack of blocking. Therefore, I don’t see anything major on the horizon, at least through Christmas. The period between Christmas and New Years is still in the long range but most signals are continuing the unfavorable snow pattern into at least the first week of January. Again, it could happen in a thread the needle situation but until the Pacific pattern improves, the chances are lower than average. Plenty of winter to go though.

Monday (Dec 19) high temperatures should struggle to get above freezing for NNJ elevations. The rest of the state should be held in the 30s. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should fall into the single digits for NNJ elevations and teens for mostly everyone else. The immediate coast might hang in the 20s.

Tuesday (Dec 20) high temperatures should reach into the 30s for most. The immediate coast might flirt with 40. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the teens and 20s.

Wednesday (Dec 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s statewide. The immediate coast might hang around freezing.

Thursday (Dec 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s again statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. A small chance of a light snow/rain shower exists (snow if NWNJ rain if SENJ mixed between). Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with immediate coastal areas likely hanging in the 30s.

Friday (Dec 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s and 30s again.

An early look at the weekend indicates even milder conditions. I’m seeing highs in the 40s/50s with possibly some light precipitation here and there. Such conditions should at least allow relatively hassle-free holiday travel (at least weather-wise). For those waiting for a snow storm, we’re likely going to have to wait until January for the favorable wintry pattern to reload.  Temps then look to fall again to start next week. Not another Arctic air mass…just average for winter. Let’s revisit everything Thursday evening for the weekend outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™