Discussion: Temperatures are currently maxing today near-90 along the I-95 corridor. 80s for elevations and most coastal regions while the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coast sits in the 70s due to sea breeze dynamics. The SBF sparked a few downpours and thunder cells along/just offshore this morning, but things have now quieted down with the SBF further advancing inland. Can’t rule out a few more pop-ups into this evening. Temps should range from 60-70 tonight (from elevations to coasts) with more humidity in SENJ than the rest of the state. Upper jet analysis is easy for this weekend…N of NJ. Geopotential heights appear near-average so nothing noteworthy there. The most prominent feature to me is high pressure over Bermuda driving S/SW flow into NJ. This means warmer temps (90+) away from the ocean, with elevated humidity, and PM pop-up storm chances. As far as rainfall goes, I’m not seeing any synoptic or widespread rain systems in the near future. So whatever you can pick up from isolated/scattered storms will be it. As of late, most storm fronts have been broken with little precip which is contributing to a developing drought across the Mid-Atlantic US including NJ. Next week looks hazy, hot, and humid with PM storm chances every day as the Bermuda high likely persists. Should be a decent heat wave.
Friday (July 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a dryer feel throughout most of the state less coastal regions. Winds should be light out of the NW prior to any sea breeze off the ocean. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide as a more humid air mass recovers over NJ from S to N.
Saturday (July 16) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most areas, maybe 90s for parts of WNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below the upper-60s and will likely stay above 70 for much of SENJ.
Sunday (July 17) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. 90 is possible again away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with afternoon thunderstorms around. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 statewide.
An early look at next week indicates hot and unsettled conditions. We’re likely entering a prolonged heat wave where most locations, less the immediate coast, see multiple days in row of 90+ conditions. The coast would roast (near-90) until sea breeze time each day. Given the expected higher humidity next week, it seems like lots of storm fuel IMO for afternoon pop-ups. No widespread rain however is expected in the near future. Time for some hazy, hot, and humid conditions that traditionally occur in July. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC