Summery Conditions (Aug 21-23)

Discussion: We have two upper-jets involved in this weekend’s pattern. The southern jet has formed a trough over the general interior SE US. The northern jet is a bit more zonal and should eventually take over as the primary for NJ. These two jets are merging from a split flow configuration just to the W of NJ (but just E of the Great lakes). By the end of the weekend we’ll see a ridge bridge connect between the Bermuda ridge and higher heights over the Great Lakes as the SE US trough retrogrades back towards TX/N Mexico. At the surface we’re back to SW/SSW flow for this weekend due to the Bermuda high return flow re-establishing over NJ. The last few days featured lower humidity, but such was transient and we’re back to August NJ business. Therefore, we’re going to be warmer and more humid for this weekend with shower and thunderstorms possible any day especially during afternoon-evening hours. I see this general pattern lasting from today until at least next Wednesday. Next Wednesday a cold front is modeled to push through associated with an area of high pressure passing through. That should lower our dew point temperatures again and provide relief from maybe Wednesday night into next weekend.

Tropics: We have two tropical systems, Laura and Tropical Depression 14. Laura is located in the far E Caribbean and 14 in the far W Caribbean. Laura should travel W/NW over the Caribbean but likely ultimately into the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll have to see how close Laura gets to Florida in the ~Monday period before possibly making landfall on the N Gulf of Mexico coast around ~Wednesday. TD 14 is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and then head towards a coastal TX/LA landfall around ~Tuesday. There’s a lot of uncertainty with both storms, especially how strong they could intensify once over the open Gulf of Mexico. While not having much relevance to NJ, I will still track both systems. But neither system present a direct tropical threat to NJ. Once these systems make landfall and unravel as a tropical core system, they could bring additional rainfall to NJ later next weekend after passing over E US land. That would remove most wind aspects and just leave rainfall. That’s about the most I see these systems doing for NJ.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s with humidity starting to trickle back in. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during afternoon/early-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 from elevations to sea.

Saturday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s with a humid feel. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

Sunday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s with a humid feel. Skies should be partly sunny with more afternoon/early-evening showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same conditions. Each day looks partly-to-mostly sunny for most hours but cannot rule out afternoon-evening showers and thunderstorms. I expect the humidity to stick around (get it?) until at least Wednesday. High temperatures are looking like mid-to-upper 80s but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the traditionally warmer locations of interior CNJ/SNJ flirt with breaking 90. After Wednesday another cold front could bring more transient relief for Thursday into the weekend. Let’s see if anything changes in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™