Summer Pattern Developing Right on Time

Discussion: We’re nearing the end of the dominant lower geopotential heights pattern we’ve been in. For this next week or so, there’s not much to talk about in the upper levels. 250-500mb appears very mundane. The lower-mid levels will have the highest impact to NJ this week starting with a pressure gradient squeeze Tues-Wed. High pressure in the NE US and low pressure in the SE US will generate an onshore fetch during these days and it could become quite breezy along the coast. Wednesday should see the highest winds off the ocean as rain pushes into SNJ from the S and works northward. Coastal flooding is very likely. By Thursday morning, onshore winds should transition to warmer S flow. Rainfall should still linger in the E US synoptically. It looks like we’re going to see a wet pattern transition us into summer conditions not too far after the solstice. With that said, Wednesday through the weekend and into next week looks warm, humid, rainy, and stormy.  

Tuesday (June 20) high temperatures should reach near or just above 80 away from the ocean. Coastal areas should reach the mid-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Can’t rule out some afternoon/early-evening showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the E, likely breezier out of the E along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 55-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (June 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s away from the ocean. Coastal areas should max closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds to start but rain should push into SNJ from the S and work northward. NNJ will hang onto the driest conditions for the longest. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE away from the ocean, likely gusty (possibly to 40mh) out of the E/NE along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 55-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (June 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out showers, especially for SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E/SE away from the ocean, breezier out of the E/SE along the coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as clouds and humidity likely roll in.

Friday (June 23) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mainly cloudy with a humid feel. Showers and even a few rumbles are possible. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should stay in the 65-70 range.

An early look at the weekend indicates a more summery look with highs in the 80s for most areas and elevated humidity. It does look unsettled though meaning rain and thunderstorms likely through the weekend and into next week. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC