Discussion: The upper levels will remain zonal through Wednesday of this week. Starting Thursday, the upper levels become interesting as an approaching trough will likely capture Fiona and deliver a Sandy-like situation somewhere between Scandinavia and Nova Scotia. New Jersey will be far-enough removed upstream to see any direct impacts from the storm. Mostly likely some enhanced surf and rip currents mid-week from Fiona passing well out to sea. New Jersey will, however, experience some unseasonably cool conditions (for late September) between Thursday night and Sunday morning when the phase occurs and pulls Canadian air down behind it over New Jersey. A broad area of high pressure diving to the S of NJ will reinforce the NW flow at the lower levels. We’re talking highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s, possibly upper-30s, for Friday and Saturday. A true fall slap. First, we’ll see a warmer and muggier Monday-Wednesday. Thursday should then likely peak in the 70s before the potential PM stormfront. Since the cold front on Thursday is expected to be aggressive, it’s meteorologically plausible to expect showers and thunderstorms just ahead and along of such. Thursday night would then be the arrival of the colder air mass. Friday morning should then trigger the fall feelz for many, just one day later than astronomical calendar’s first day of fall. Once we moderate back to seasonably average conditions (by Sunday), we’ll likely get stuck in a highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s pattern to close the rest of September out. No major widespread rainfall on the horizon. Just a sprinkle Tuesday morning and whatever we can get from the stormfront Thursday PM.
Monday (Sept 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. A little closer to 90 maybe for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, likely during the afternoon. But for most, another dry and warm late-summer day. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-60s for most areas with light rain possible overnight.
Tuesday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. NWNJ elevations might fail to escape the 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny after some possible overnight light rain. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Rip currents are possible along beaches. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.
Wednesday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Rip currents are possible along beaches. Overnight lows should fall into the 65-70 range for most areas.
Thursday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should start mixed but a stormfront is possible between afternoon and evening hours. This could mean short-duration downpours, gusty winds, and even some hail. Once the front is through, overnight lows should fall into the 40s/50s. Rip currents should begin subsiding.
Friday (Sept 23) high temperatures could struggle to break out of the 60s. A noticeable step downward in thermal feel with low humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the N/NW. Overnight could hang in the lower-50s along the immediate coast. But away from the ocean, most should dip into the 40s and I wouldn’t be surprised to see NWNJ elevations or the Pine Barrens dip slightly below 40.
An early look at the weekend indicates another cool and crisp day on Saturday where most areas struggle to break out of the 60s. Low-70s at most. Then Sunday a few degrees warmer. It might be a while until NJ sees 80s again.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC