Stormy Start. Improvement by Mid-Week.

Discussion: The front side of an approaching upper-level trough should keep the region unsettled today and tomorrow surrounding a cold front passage at the surface. Today (Monday) we should feel the heat and humidity build in the core of the warm sector. Tomorrow (Tuesday) we should feel the relief through PM hours after the afternoon frontal passage. Remnants of Claudette are moving off OBX right now and will stay well to the SE of NJ today/tonight as it continues out to sea. Only possible direct impacts are enhanced surf and rip currents. A pre-frontal trough could then form between Claudette’s remnants and the main cold front to the W of NJ. This could push thunderstorms through NJ later tonight. This would then leave the first half of Tuesday more stabilized ahead of the cold front meaning weaker thunderstorms and most likely just a rainy/gusty period once the front itself pushes through by late-afternoon. Tuesday night then starts an amazing stretch of weather that should last into Friday. As high pressure floats through in the wake of Tuesday’s cold front, Wednesday should be the driest feeling and coolest day, Thursday the nicest and calmest, then Friday still nice but with humidity re-building. The high will reach Bermuda and park for a stretch of warm and humid Friday through this weekend and into next week.  

Monday (June 21) high temperatures should reach near 90 for most areas. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy to a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity should remain noticeably elevated—allowing an excessive feel. Can’t rule out isolated thunderstorms especially evening and overnight. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70.

Tuesday (June 22) high temperatures should range from near-70 to near-80 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms expected. Expect conditions to generally cool and dry through PM hours with the passage of a cold front. Winds should then become light out of the NW as overnight lows drop into the 50s for most, possibly 40s for elevations.

Wednesday (June 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant drier feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (June 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s to lower-80s range. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds as humidity starts to trickle back in. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 60s for most areas.

An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures back up into the 80s with more traditional summery conditions (days humid, mostly clear/sunny, with random isolated afternoon pop-ups). Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™