Stormy Monday Night Expected

Discussion: Temperatures should moderate back into the 65-75 range tomorrow (Monday) as a warm sector influences NJ with warmer temperatures and higher levels of humidity. A stormfront is then expected to pass through New Jersey from NW to SE between about 7pm and midnight Monday night. So much of the day will be dry and mild despite a breezy-to-gusty wind situation out of the S/SW.

Regarding the intensity of the stormfront, at least downpours and breezy-gusty winds are expected with high confidence. Lightning is very likely but not guaranteed for all NJ locations as the stormfront will be passing through NJ after sundown (loss of diurnal instability). With that said, NWNJ has the best chance for thunderstorm activity and SENJ has the least chance for thunderstorms. All are on the hook though. Lesser chance occurrences would be hail and or tornadoes. These are low chances but non-zero and will be called hyper-locally upon warnings.

A cold front then follows the stormfront and sets up a cooler Tuesday-Wednesday before temps rebound milder again for Thursday-Friday but under unsettled conditions (clouds, rain, possibly more thunderstorms). The weekend looks more settled but in-between temperature-wise (highs in the 55-65 range).

In English: Expect a mild breezy day on Monday with rain and thunderstorms likely pushing through from NW to SE between 7pm and midnight. Downpours and breeze are good bets. Low but non-zero chances for hail and isolated tornadoes. This sets up a cooler dryer Tues-Wed then a warmer and wetter Thurs-Friday. I’ll get a weekly outlook out after tomorrow night’s stormfront. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC