Storms Usher in the Goodness Again

Discussion: I can feel summer starting to slip away. Later sunrises. Earlier sunsets. Warmer onshore flow. Different shadows throughout the day from a lower sun-angle. It’s all there as I’ve experienced and mentally logged for decades. Soon (September), we’ll be experiencing the cool damp “morning bus stop” feel while paying attention to tropical threats. Then just after that, mainly October into November, peak nor’easter season. And not too long after that (~90 days), we’ll be gearing up to track any possible early-season snowfall opportunities. But not yet. The nicest and most pleasant weather conditions of the year are just around the corner and this week we’re going to get an early taste of it. It might even spark the annual pumpkin latte craze.

It’s no secret that we’re currently warm and humid. We’ve been in a swampy/stormy SW flow warm sector for about 36 hours (as of 3pm Monday) with a moist air mass source (elevated humidity). So between now (3pm Monday) and about midnight, a cold front will drive a broken line of thunderstorms through NJ from W/NW to E/SE. Most short-range guidance has just isolated/scattered activity. But the smaller cells could still drop a lot of rain given the precipitable water potential of the atmosphere. So flash flooding is on the table for any cells that train over or move slower over certain areas. Otherwise, typical thunderstorm conditions are likely with some hit and some missed. Any activity after midnight, if any, should be SNJ/SENJ-focused but it all moves out well-before sunrise Tuesday. The cold front then moves through and sets the mood for the rest of the week.

What I’m seeing is another trough phasing into the trough behind tomorrow morning’s cold front. This consolidates the upper-level cyclonic energy over New England, leaving NJ in the SW quadrant of that. Being in the SW quadrant of that means a cold/dry air mass reinforcement from Canada being delivered to NJ via NW flow. I’m seeing dews down into the upper-40s! This is the reason why Tuesday PM through at least Thursday will have more of a late-September/early-October feel rather than late-August. It looks like Wednesday night/Thursday morning should be the driest and coolest point of the week. But all cool and dry after Tuesday morning. With a gradual moderation back, Thursday into the weekend should have more of an early-September feel before humidity rewinds our feel back to “August humid.” Tonight’s stormfront is the only rain I’m seeing for the week…unless the upper-low consolidation brings rain on its immediate SW side mid-week. NNJ would be most susceptible to that wildcard but the low looks mostly dry with rain impacting New England the most.

Monday (Aug 19) high temperatures are maxing (as of 3pm) in the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and a very humid feel. Thunderstorms are possible, favoring PM hours. Localized severe thunderstorm criteria and flash flooding are possible. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW (unless under/near a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should range from 60-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as thunderstorm chances continue into early Tuesday AM hours.

Tuesday (Aug 20) high temperatures should only range in the 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should gradually transition from cloudy in the morning to mostly sunny by afternoon, maybe some friendly flat-bottom wind clouds around. Humidity should noticeably drop. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under clear skies. A reminder that fall is on the near-horizon.

Wednesday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should again range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under clear skies.

Thursday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Another beautiful mostly sunny day with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts under clear skies.

Friday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s for much of NJ. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run into the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (Aug 24-25) indicates highs in the low-to-mid 80s with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows 55-65. Winds light, starting out from the W/SW and becoming SW or S/SW. A gradual increase in humidity throughout the weekend with swampy stuff returning by next Monday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™