Discussion: We have an interesting 24-36 hours ahead of us in NJ. Though it’s not accumulating snow (what many of you want to hear), there are still going to be some weather safety hazards worth considering for travel and preparation. Since this is a long and drawn-out series of impacts at different phases of the system, let’s just walk through it chronologically.
This afternoon/evening (Tuesday) – There are no serious impacts for the rest of today or tonight (Tuesday). You will notice, however, that by late-afternoon/early evening, S winds will begin building and a few initial isolated rain showers could fall. As late-afternoon/early evening transitions into later tonight, expect rain to fill in from just an isolate nature to more of a scattered thing. Expect S/SW winds to continue building gradually but remaining in the breezy category…breeziest along the coast.
Wednesday Morning (12am-6am) – This is where the system should grow its legs. Around midnight, or shortly after (early am hours), rainfall should transition from scattered to widespread and winds should step up to the moderate category (gusts of 30-40mph) closer to 6am.
Wednesday Morning (6am-noon) – This is where conditions will approach peak intensity but it’s looking a bit complicated. The short-range data trend I’m noticing for Wednesday is that NWNJ will see the most rainfall and SENJ will see the most wind. There might be a good portion of the morning/day when it’s pouring on NWNJ/WNJ but not raining along the ENJ/SENJ coast. During that time, winds could be ripping out of the S along the coast but just breezy in NWNJ. So keep that trend in mind for daytime hours of Wednesday. Otherwise, this is the start of the greatest chance for wind-related power outages.
Wednesday (noon-6pm) – This should be the window of worst conditions for this system. It might start an hour or two before or after noon but you get the idea. This is when NWNJ/WNJ rainfall should push into ENJ/SENJ and put all of NJ under steady moderate-to-heavy rainfall. I’m also seeing a linear squall of heavier precipitation pushing from W to E during this time. If that linear squall comes to fruition, then you would see a strip of the heaviest rainfall (short-lasting) push through with very gusty winds (40-60mph) and possibly some lightning. The S winds ahead of the squall should continue building in intensity right up through the passage of the squall just ahead of the cold front. This will be the time that the ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions, and maybe 10-20 miles inland) are subject to the highest wind gusts. I think 40mph is a safe bet, 50mph is possible, and a non-zero chance of gusts reaching 60mph. Again, that would be for the ECNJ/SENJ coast during this time period. Areas away from the ocean, especially far N and W NJ, would see much lower wind gust speeds. This period would be the greatest chance for wind-related power outages.
Wednesday (6pm-12am) – This will be the wind down phase of the system. During this time, winds will switch from S to W/NW with the passage of the cold front (expect a temporary lull between). Otherwise, gusty S winds should become 20-40mph stiff W/NW winds and that’s how you’ll know the cold front is through. Temperatures will crash….while some areas of NJ saw 60 degrees earlier Wednesday morning, most of NJ will crash down to at least the 30s. Precipitation will shut off from W to E rapidly during this phase. There is a chance of rain turning to and falling as snow on the backside of this. While very possible, the surface would only be at or below freezing for extreme NWNJ elevations above 1000ft or higher. The rest of NJ would stay in the 35-40F range at the surface, preventing any snow accumulation. With that said, I would give areas N of I-80 and NW of I-287 a small chance of seeing a coating to an inch of snow above 1200ft of elevation. For the rest of NJ, you could see anything from a few flakes mixed in with the rain to a snowy burst…but no accumulations. It will plenty cold aloft for snow generation but above freezing at the surface. There’s a better chance for tail-end flakes NW of I-95/NJTP. There’s the lowest chance for this in SNJ/SENJ. A more realistic expectation is for all of NJ S of I-80 and SE of I-287 to see all rain from this system. The chance for wind-related power outages should lessen throughout this phase.
Thursday Morning (12am-afternoon/early-evening) – At this point, the rainfall will be long gone over the Atlantic Ocean. Winds will be steady and stiff out of the W/NW. Temperatures will be crashing below freezing for most of NJ by 3am due to strong cold air advection. Temperatures should be below freezing (20s for NWNJ and near-32 for SENJ – near-30 for most of NJ) from about 3am until 7am. Logically, this brings a black ice concern to the table. The stiff and dry winds, however, should dry most road surfaces with proper graded drainage before any moisture is allowed to freeze. Freezing before evaporating would likely only be an issue for the colder elevations in the 20s during the 3am-7am window. Any side puddles or ground water that fails to evaporate could freeze but fortunately that’s not roads. The rest of NJ should wake up to dry roads, stiff W/NW winds, and improving conditions ahead of the much-colder start to the weekend.
In English: Rain and winds build gradually this afternoon into tonight (Tuesday) and should reach peak intensity between late-morning and late-afternoon on Wednesday. Rainfall then tapers off from W to E Wednesday evening. Expected rainfall total from now through Wednesday night ranges from one inch for SENJ up to 2 inches+ in NWNJ. All of NJ should see at least an inch. Winds should be strongest on Wednesday S and E of I-95/NJTP, especially along the coast where 40-60mph gusts are possible. Rain could change to snow Wednesday night (NWNJ favored over SENJ) but only trace of accumulation above 1200ft of elevation. The rest of NJ is either mostly rain ending as non-accumulating snow or all rain period. Wind-related power outages are likely, especially S and E of I-95/NJTP on Wednesday. Live observations from hereon out. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC