Spring Tease Precedes Winter Finale

Discussion: This article is a deeper dive into the next few weeks. Let’s first talk about the expected warmup to occur later this week. Today and tomorrow are still somewhat cooler (highs in the 40s lows in the 20s for NJ) mainly due to the N flow influence behind the departing Feb 3-5 signal that impacted the SE US. This N flow will also move offshore with the system allowing for a more W/SW flow Thursday and Friday (highs into lower-50s for NJ). At the same time (Thurs-Fri), a low is expected to cut into the W Great Lakes and pull up a warm sector from the S for the E US. This will coincide with an upper ridge over the E US that should last through this weekend into the start of next week. Saturday looks like the mildest day when some locations away from the ocean might push into lower-60s. NJ should remain in this milder pattern through Monday. Maybe not 60+ for Sunday and Monday but at least 50+. It should feel amazing especially during peak sun hours with the climbing sun angle. I foresee a few people “coming down with something Friday” regarding work callouts lol. Otherwise, this looks like great weather to get late-winter, or even early spring, outdoor stuff accomplished. The milder stretch looks mostly dry with mixed skies and general S/SW flow. This mild snap should then end Monday as we transition back into a winter finale pattern.

The snow pattern setting up is no joke, meteorologically, for potential winter storm development. I’m not focused on any single event just yet, much more in awe of the suggested pattern that begins Feb 13, goes through the rest of February, and possibly well into March. This pattern change was well-identified a few weeks ago on long-term data tools (before it started to show on the models). Indicators like IOD, SOI, the declining El Nino, MJO, and the disrupted/relaxed Pacific Jet first detected it. Then data tools like the European weeklies, CFS, etc. began seeing the east coast trough pattern supported by blocking over Greenland and W US ridging. What was crazy, still is crazy, is the suggested duration of the east coast trough pattern…extending well into March. Only now is the pattern change appearing on global operational models (GFS, Euro, Canadian GEM, etc.). The surface model output might be all over the place, which is to be expected, but the upper-level look is emerging with unanimous support on ensemble analysis.

It is still too soon to say which specific events will leverage this pattern. Feb 14? Feb 18? Feb 22? Feb 26? There are many potential signals showing. However, we can start to look at one event which is the pattern opener in the Feb 13-14 period. This would be next Tuesday-Wednesday, a week from today…so soon enough to start casually monitoring. There will likely be some kind of event in this time that pushes a cold front through (from NW to SE) and introduces us to the east coast trough pattern. There are inhibiting factors that would prevent this pattern opener from tracking northward (into the cold trough). However, if this system passes through slow enough, it could tap the approaching cold air mass early and bring a snow event to the N Mid-Atlantic. There’s an equal chance this system passes by too fast (still in the departing warmer air). In that case, rain would be expected over snow but temps would drop immediately behind the system to kick-off the pattern. We should know a lot more about this Feb 13-14 system by this Friday. But after that, any system is game to take advantage of the pattern. When I say take advantage, I mean that the blocking will slow systems down and allow them to deepen in pressure more before speeding away. There will also be adequate cold to tap (from the trough) to favor snow PTYPE over rain. And again, I don’t know how far this pattern will last…but at least through the end of February.

So what could go wrong? As favorable as the pattern setting up is, we will still need low pressure to track favorably to bring NJ a precipitation shield. Lows like to round the base of troughs which gives NJ an advantage in this trough pattern. But sometimes storms can be suppressed S or out to sea by the strong N cold energy stream. This is where the biggest forecasting challenges will occur, but we’ll be on it within any 5-7-day storm window. Also, we’re getting further into sun angle issues with each day in February and especially in March. We’re ok until ~President’s Day Weekend. After that, it has to nuke snow during the day to stick but can still stick at night. And after ~March 1, lower sun angle can affect nighttime snow by way of longwave radiation reflection around Earth. Again, it has to nuke like March 1993 or March 2017 to see big accumulating snow in March and it would be a very wet heavy snow yielding power outages and snapping tree limbs. In order for us to squeeze out a powderier major snowstorm, we need this to happen by the end of President’s Day Weekend. Lastly, we are pushing into climatological temperature issues during the day. Average high temps for NJ in February range from 38-44 from Sussex County to Cape May County. If a model sees a clear day, it will report the high temp closer to the average value. However, if there’s a snowstorm overhead, there will be upper-level cold to tap, clouds blocking the sun from reaching the ground, and precipitation to bring down the colder air. My main point is that many will see high temperatures on your apps above freezing. However, if a storm tracks over NJ, it will be cold enough to snow and stick. See President’s Day Weekend 2003 if you need an example. But low placement, sun angle, and climo temps are the factors that could spoil something happening during an amazing snow pattern.

So, I will be monitoring the data to better figure out if our pattern opener system will be snow, rain, or a miss to the S next Tuesday-Wednesday (Feb 3-14). Should have a clearer assessment by this Friday night. Then I suspect I will be tracking multiple snow signals between Feb 13 and early March. Personally, I prefer big snow between Thanksgiving and President’s Day weekends. IMO March snow feels out of place and too wet. At that point, I’m already looking forward to spring changes. But hey, every now and then mother nature makes a fool of us all. If we have to track snow into early April then so be it.

In English: We’re still cooler today and tomorrow but I’m sure many are starting to feel winter’s demise in the form of earlier sunrises, sunnier peak afternoons, and later sunsets. There’s really going be a spring tease between this Thursday and Monday when temperatures push into the 50s, possibly 60s. Saturday looks like the mildest day, but Thursday-Monday should all feel very mild, especially during/under sunny hours. And most conditions during this mild stretch should be rain-free with SW winds and skies mixed with sun and clouds. I am monitoring a storm signal for next Tues-Wed that will introduce a long-duration cold/snow pattern lasting through at least the end of February, possibly well into March. By this Friday, I should have much better idea of low track and precipitation type for next Tues-Wed. Whether or not that hits as snow or not is irrelevant to the larger cold/snowy pattern moving in. Until then, please enjoy the mild stretch and early taste of spring before winter finales. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™