Discussion: A quick-moving narrow trough will move through between now (Monday) and Wednesday of this week. This should provide a small window of relief from heat and humidity in the Tuesday-Wednesday period as upper-level flow becomes NW and steers some cooler and dryer air towards NJ from Canada. I wouldn’t expect too much relief but at least something. Wednesday night and forward, we’ll be back under (to the S of) the upper-jet which will mean returning heat and humidity heading into the weekend. This weekend through at least July ~25 looks like the hottest part of the year as an E US ridge develops and hangs, allowing heat and humidity to build re-enforced with Gulf of Mexico air mass (SW flow into NJ). So the small break in heat and humidity this Tuesday-Thursday should feature dry skies. But today, and Friday-forward could feature afternoon-evening building thunderstorms on any day. While no outbreaks are anticipated, the general setup will simply be a “storm fuel” environment with strong diurnal surface heating in a very humid surface profile. It won’t take much to spark a few cells so keep an eye to the sky despite mostly sun and clouds. Friday PM looks like the best chance for storms given a possible cold FROPA.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (July 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible especially during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (July 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (July 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with some humidity relief. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (July 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with returning humidity. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.
Friday (July 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible especially during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at the weekend indicates Hazy, Hot, and Humid (HHH) conditions with statewide temperatures likely in the 90s (heat indices likely 100+) for Saturday and Sunday. We might see a small window of relief Friday PM into Saturday AM depending on if the Friday PM cold front comes through or hangs up. While no thunderstorm outbreaks are currently anticipated, you cannot rule out at least isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms especially during afternoon/evening hours, given the environment. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™