Some Nice Stuff this Week

Discussion: I saw a few areas got hit with some nasty snow showers and squalls yesterday…not much accumulation (a coating here and there) but a hard hit of reduced visibility and winds can really pack a punch. I had a feeling this would be the case, as mentioned last week, given the lake effect action occurring under a rapidly deepening upper low. This morning (Monday) was certainly a “listen to the wind blow, watch the sunrise” kind of morning/day today in Jersey. Not surprised given the tight isobars aligned from NW to SE between the departing low (spinning counter-clockwise near Nova Scotia) and high pressure (spinning clockwise over the SE US)…like the wheels of a baseball pitching machine. The current NW winds are the fastballs between. These winds will relax tonight as the low further departs eastward and high pressure gets closer…also a bit from the loss of diurnal solar heating and temp equalization. Tonight/tomorrow morning should be the coldest point/start to the week. Still breezy by Saturday morning but no longer very gusty. Again, this current cold air mass is transient, and temperatures will be moderating quite aggressively towards a spring feel this week as a more prolonged upper ridge settles over the E US through about March 18. Then from March 18-22, the E US will likely enter the last week or so where snowstorms are possible. This will be once the ridge moves out and a more favorable pattern sets up despite all the inhibiting accumulation factors (sun angle, climo, etc.). Three synoptic storm signals have been showing and not showing from data run to data run. The first is around March 18-19 (to open the pattern), the second a weaker signal around March 24-26, and then the third around March 28 (to close the pattern). These are signals where both snow and rain could be involved (likely divided somewhere between I-80/I-287 and I-95) but any snow will struggle to accumulate especially on the coastal plain…unless it dumps nuts overnight. This period, again, will represent the bottom of the 9th inning. We’ll call each of the 3 signals within that period the last 3 at-bats or outs.

Monday (March 11) high temperatures should top-out in the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should start out strong/gusty (to 40-50mph) out of the NW but should subside by late-evening to just breezy (15-30mph) through Tuesday morning. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most NJ locations, closer to 40 near the ECNJ/SENJ coasts.

Tuesday (March 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. A great feel after the colder Sunday-Monday. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (March 13) high temperatures should reach easily into the 60s with many locations having a good shot at breaking 70. Some record warm temperatures are on the chopping block. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (March 14) high temperatures should again reach easily into the 60s with areas away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ having the best chance to break into the 70s. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to lower-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (March 15) high temperatures should range from 60-70 from N to S with coastal areas closer to 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few spring-like showers around. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates dry conditions (currently) but slightly cooler than it will be this Tues-Fri. Highs might only just reach 60 with lows in the 30s/40s. Next week likely starts the last chance for any snow this winter. Too warm for it during the daytime but overnight could work if timed properly. We’ll see. After next week, it will likely be time to call winter…right around the end to calendar winter. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC