Discussion: High pressure should first push a cold front southward over New Jersey (tonight into Friday). This should produce a much drier feel for Friday and most of Saturday. As high pressure moves into the Atlantic Ocean and to our E, return flow will form and switch winds to the S/SW. This should produce a warm and humid Sunday. Onshore flow should keep Friday and Saturday in the mixed skies category. Sunday could be clearer but should still feature some friendly clouds. Given the eventual warm air advection fog is possible Saturday and Sunday morning. High pressure positioning should pump the E US ridge for most of next week. The October 13-18 period could see some pattern reversal with colder and drier conditions. The jury is still out on how transient or sustaining the pattern flip will be. But we do know we’re warm and muggy through next week and colder by the end of next weekend.
Friday (Oct 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most. Skies should be partly cloudy with a pleasant feel due to lower humidity. Just a small chance of passing showers across SNJ during early afternoon hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from lower-50s to lower-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (Oct 6) high temperatures should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should hold in the 60s as winds rock to more of a S/SW direction.
Sunday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. I wouldn’t be surprised to see interior CNJ/SNJ break 80. Skies should be mixed with returning humidity. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates warmer than average temperatures. That means highs in the 70s/80s and lows struggling to dip below the mid-60s. The first half of the week looks dry with high pressure in control. We might see some Thursday-Friday rain and storms that usher in more of a late-November feel by the end of the weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Otherwise everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™