Discussion: There’s no reason to beat the physics of this snowstorm any more than we have in the last 10 days. You are welcome to go back and read the discussions for such but nothing has really changed as far as the idea of how this storm will form for NJ. This article today will focus on easy-to-understand expectations.
Today we have a milder day with periods of rain. Temperatures are ranging from 35-45 NNJ to SNJ and could possibly gain a few more degrees before peak afternoon heating hours reverse into sunset cooling later today. How cold we drop tonight will have significant impact on the thermal boundary for tomorrow’s storm.
When we all wake up tomorrow, I would expect only NNJ elevations to be at or just below freezing. The rest of NJ should range from a few degrees above freezing in NENJ/CNJ to lower-40s along the immediate SENJ coast. I am expecting temperatures to max out around 11am before the Arctic air starts pushing S into NJ and dropping temperatures. Apart from ECNJ/SNJ/SENJ, all areas should quickly drop to freezing or below especially as initial snowfall cools the column. SENJ will be last to drop to freezing or below (late-afternoon into sunset) which is one of the reasons SENJ is expected to see the least snow from this system. Other reasons include marine influence at low-mid levels that could inhibit snow dendrite growth and produce more of a sleet/mix. All other zones away from ECNJ/SENJ though should quickly drop to the point of snow falling and sticking…likely by 1-2pm or sooner.
Precipitation should approach SWNJ tomorrow morning around 10am. It will then push into/spread into the rest of NJ by noon-1pm. Peak precipitation should occur statewide between 1pm and 8pm. Precipitation should then end from WNJ to ENJ between 8-10pm. Expect a snow/rain line to establish somewhere SE of I-95/NJTP from the start. Eventually (closer to sunset), the snow/rain line should push to the coast and all areas should end as snow. SENJ could see a few hours of snow between sunset and 10pm but daytime hours for SENJ will likely consist of a sleet/rain mix due to warmer surface and lower-level temperatures. The rest of NJ, away from SENJ, should expect precipitation to start and end as snow, especially areas just SE of 95 and NW from there. This is our updated snow map for today:
Zone C is the jackpot zone. We’ve upped this general expectation from 4-8 to 6-9 and we feel that some areas within this zone could exceed 9 inches. This would be only for areas where more intense mesoscale banding sets up under the areas of best frontogenic forcing. This 9+ would likely be on an isolated/localized basis, only if it happens, within the general C area and not representative of the entire C area.
Zone D remains my area of greatest concern for bust. Wherever the snow/rain line sets up initially, is going to determine what areas of zone D get chopped down significantly. Closer to 95 has a better chance to verify than areas closer to the coast. 3 seems reachable here but 6 might be pushing it. We have to respect what we’re seeing on guidance and upstream live observations though.
Zones E and F are a bit more certain as we feel they will be the areas most affected by mixing and baroclinic boundary temperature issues relating to a warm day to start + marine low-mid level influence. For this reasons, amounts are in the trace-to-light category. Immediate coastal areas of Zones E and F are subject to the strongest onshore flow and this could produce minor tidal flooding. These areas likely do not start out as snow. Sleet or plain rain would be the expected precipitation type to start with a snowy finish amounting to our suggested range.
After snow ends Sunday night, the coldest air of winter will push in and produce a very cold Monday-Wednesday statewide. This brings up a few additional concerns. First, anything wet in ECNJ/SNJ/SENJ from the warmer start to the storm will freeze Sunday night if untreated and it will be so cold by Monday morning that salt should struggle to melt ice. If it looks wet Monday morning, assume it is frozen.
We then turn attention to a very large SE US winter storm that could push N enough to bring more snow to at least SNJ…currently targeting Zones E and F on Wednesday Jan 22 with the highest snow amounts. It could possibly compliment tomorrow’s snowstorm and fill the rest of SENJ in with snow accumulation. I will re-visit Wed Jan 22 tomorrow in greater detail as we will only be 3 days away (4 days from today). Just know that a large storm is targeting the SE US for Tuesday night into Wednesday and it could turn up the coast for NJ Wednesday afternoon-evening.
In English: After a rainy and mild Saturday, snow/rain should push into SWNJ Sunday morning by 10am, expand into the rest of NJ by 1pm, snow/rain fairly hard from 1pm to 8pm, and then end from WNJ to ENJ around 8-10pm. A snow/rain line should immediately establish near or just SE of I-95/NJTP and stay in place until about 5pm before pushing to the coast. Most of the storm should feature this snow/rain line but once it crashes to the coast, even SENJ could see snow before it all ends. The above snow map is our updated forecast and likely our last heading into the storm. Tomorrow morning would allow one final update if, and only if, needed. Otherwise I might just speak to how each zone is expected to perform within their ranges if our map stands as called. Everyone have a great rest of your Saturday and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC