Snow Unlikely Until 2024

Discussion: I was out of town for a bit through Christmas and apologize for the lack of content during such. I’m back now and we’re closing out the final weekend of 2023. In my last article I had mentioned a rainy transition in the ~Dec 27-28 which would take us from mild to colder conditions. All of that has held up, we’re just not going into bitter cold for this weekend and next week. Instead of high reaching into the 50s, they will cap in the low-to-mid 40s with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and in some cases 20s. We’re in an El Nino which traditionally produces a warmer and less snowy December. However, the Nino region ocean surface temperatures are in the process of shifting the warmest anomalies from region 1+2 across to other regions (3/4). This will eventually have colder downstream implications for the E US as we get further into January. But from now through the first week of January, I wouldn’t get any hopes up for snow. It will be colder than it has been, but likely not snowy. A few synoptic storm signals exist (Jan 4-5 and Jan 7-8) but they look warm as of now, despite NJ possibly being on the NW side of the low. In such a scenario with the cold lacking, the most we could hope for is snow mixing in with little-to-no accumulations. I’ll be following both signals once we’re through this weekend in case there are changes. Otherwise, a very active pattern will continue without the cold needed to produce a snowstorm. Hopefully, the second week of January-forward will produce something. I’ll tell it like it is though. I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays and has a happy new year!

Friday (Dec 29) high temperatures have maxed for today (Friday) in the 45-55 range from N to S. Skies are a litter cloudier in NNJ but clearer in CNJ/SNJ. Clouds and a few stray showers across CNJ/SNJ could happen overnight but no biggie. Winds should remain light out of the W/SW as overnight temps fall to the 35-45 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Dec 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Dec 31 – New Year’s Eve) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s statewide.

Monday (Jan 1 – New Year’s Day) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from 25-35 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Highs in the 40s. Lows in the 20s/30s. There are a few storm signals (~Jan 4-5 and ~Jan 7-8) but both look rainy not snowy. An active, but not cold enough for snow, pattern should continue into at least the first week of January 2024. We’re a third through the snow season now with two-thirds to go. 3 scoreless innings in the baseball analogy. Plenty of time for snow but I understand and empathize with the frustrations of the snow lovers. It is what it is. But at least New Year’s Eve/Day looks good for any travel interests. Have a great weekend. Have a happy new year, and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™