Snow and Rain Approaching

Discussion: The initial rainfall portion of this system fell between last night and this morning. The occluded front was enough to spark some lightning along a linear stormfront before the precipitation flattened out to a broader slug of rain. It appears that most of NJ saw in-excess of a half inch. Many saw .75 and some even over an inch. It’s far from a drought buster but it is much needed. At the very least, it has reduced the fire risk some. All eyes now turn to the precipitation currently wrapping around the secondary low and changing to snow over parts of NY State and EPA. This is what will ultimately set up over parts of NNJ tonight. You can see it on the KBGM radar now. Here is the latest 3KM NAM model showing precipitation type and intensity around 2am overnight tonight to give you a better idea:

The changeover should continue to occur over elevations, especially as the sun heads down while the upper low sets up overhead. The upper low will dynamically cool this area of interest (includes NWNJ elevations) as cold air aloft is brought downwards into the precipitation. Additionally, evaporative cooling will commence as saturating moisture chases a drier column of air associated with the temp drop and NW flow. I believe these dynamics are sufficient to drop the surface cold enough for stickage, mainly above 1000ft in NWNJ elevations.

For everyone below 1000ft, which includes the lower 2/3 of NJ, you are likely just looking at a cold rain. The closer you are to NWNJ, the better chance you have to see some non-accumulating snow work into the rain. The ECNJ/SENJ coast and most of SNJ would have the least chance for this…best chance is NW of I-95/NJTP. Again, not a big deal for most of NJ. My focus is on how much snow can fight the marginal surface temperatures and actually accumulate in NWNJ elevations as well as how much additional rainfall can occur for the rest of NJ.

Other than snow and rain, wind is the only other component worth discussing. As the secondary surface low rotates counter-clockwise around NNJ, the surface wind direction will correlate in accordance with cyclonic flow. This means winds start out of the N/NE, change to N, then NW, then W/NW. Winds should be higher in NNJ than SNJ. Gusts of 20-35mph should be common. 40mph would likely be the cap for Friday. After that, winds straighten out out of the W/NW for the rest of the weekend with a colder temp profile.

Not much has changed since our map yesterday. We feel comfortable keeping the map the same. The only thing we’ve changed is the wording on section A to convey a more realistic expectation (mostly rain with only non-accumulating snow working in at times – better chances in NW side of zone A). No one on the ECNJ/SENJ coast or SNJ should be banking on snow out of this…just some much needed cold rain but of lesser quantity than what fell overnight. Here is the snow map we are sticking with heading into tonight:

I’m still tracking a Thanksgiving/Black Friday storm signal. It’s still there although now depicting more of a snow for northern half of NJ/rain for southern half of NJ. This is going to bounce around over the weekend but it’s still there. By Monday we should have much better details.  

In English: Rain fell with some lightning overnight. Rain will build back into NJ and change to snow by tonight (Thursday) for NWNJ elevations (see above snow map). For all other areas of NJ (NENJ, CNJ, SNJ, ECNJ, SENJ), expect more cold rain with maybe some snow working in closer to I-95/NJTP and points NW of that. It should all wrap up tomorrow (Friday) with a colder and clear weekend to follow under stiff NW winds becoming W/NW or even W by Sunday. I’ll start radar updates this evening once we see the changeover happen over NWNJ. Still watching a snow/rain storm signal for Thanksgiving/Black Friday. Will report accordingly after a few more days of data analysis and live upstream observations. Have a great rest of your Thursday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™