Discussion: This weekend and next 10-day stretch or so appear similar. A generally unsettled period. I’m seeing a lot of lower geopotential height activity over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. A few progressive troughs in the NE US/SE Canada region nick us over the next 10 days. Mostly upper-level disturbance but nothing indicating major or severe weather. Just a casually unsettled period. This has pros and cons. It should prevent any excessive heat days but still keep temperatures summery (in the 80s). 80% of the time conditions should be nice and dry but a 20% chance that a shower or thunderstorm could form over you. Nothing synoptically organized, just widespread lifting indicated by the negative upper-level geopotential height anomalies. It’s just that much easier for surface humidity to condense over the hill of gravity at a lower elevation. Much more energy is required to lift through a hot positive height environmentl With that said the sky could have more of a fall look. But with expected temps in the 80-85 range and dews in the 58-66 range, it doesn’t look too bad for most of the next 10 day period. Just plan on the unsettled nature of the atmosphere to delivery rain and t-storms at times. Washout meals not washout days. This weekend starts with onshore flow from low pressure passing through the lower Mid-Atlantic US but eventually ends with SW flow Sunday. One sec…
[Tropical Activity has entered the chat]
It’s a little early but some long-range model guidance is indicating possible tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico to start next weekend. If that were to happen, we could be looking at a synoptic scale rainfall event in the next Sunday-Monday period. It would be from remnants of the system sliding up the E coast. We would need high pressure in place near the Great Lakes by next Saturday to trough-flow the remnants out to sea Sun-Mon. A lot of moving parts but that Gulf tropical storm signal and its remnant departure seem to trigger a hotter period beginning ~June 22-23 ish. A ridge would rebuild like it did this past Sunday-Wednesday and take us back into 90s land. Let’s see how it all shakes out.
Friday (June 11) high temperatures should struggle to escape the mid-to-upper 60s statewide. A cool and mostly cloudy day thanks to marine influence. A few showers around especially for CNJ/SNJ. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.
Saturday (June 12) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. WNJ has the best chance to take a run towards 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out afternoon/early-evening showers and thunderstorms. Hit or miss type stuff. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-60 for most with more shower/thunderstorm chances.
Sunday (June 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most. Again, WNJ has the best chance to flirt with 80. Skies should remain mixed with sun and clouds with more showers and thunderstorms possible. Not a washout day. Hit or miss. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.
An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Warm but not hot. Mostly nice. Here and there showers and t-storms. Let’s take another look on Sunday. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™