Sleepless in New Jersey (Oct 7-11)

Discussion: First we have a cold front that should push through between Monday night and Tuesday morning. We’re in the warm sector now of that approaching front which is why it feels a little milder and more humid today. This feeling should continue through tomorrow and end with the cold frontal passage. I would expect at least a period of overnight rainfall along the cold front. We’re talking late-Monday night/early Tuesday AM hours. Maybe a few rumbles and gusts within. A synoptic-scale offshore storm should then develop off the SE US early in the week. As it tracks northward (well offshore) it should get stuck under a strong E Canadian ridge. This should stall the system and allow some upper-level energy to get involved. By the end of the week the W US trough should be approaching the E US which could further interact with the offshore storm. It might be Saturday before this thing moves away from the E US. That should maintain some common themes all week: Breezier along the coast than inland, on-and-off periods of scattered rain, possible coastal flooding from prolonged onshore flow, etc. It’s not a warm tropical core and doesn’t look tightly wrapped-up. Therefore I am not expecting destructive winds. Just prolonged duration of light-to-moderate winds and again mainly closer to the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Regardless we’re in for cool, gray and wet week of October NJ weather. There is a another vague coastal storm signal for the Oct 18-20 period but let’s get through this week’s system first.

Monday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to flirt with 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few showers around. A period of rain, possibly with a few rumbles, is likely overnight. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Oct 8) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of scattered rain likely. Winds should be out of the N/NE, lighter away from the ocean and breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Oct 9) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more periods of scattered rain likely. Winds should be out of the NE, lighter away from the ocean and breezier/gustier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 10) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with possibly some remnant sprinkles around. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Oct 11) high temperatures should  reach into the 60s again statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should again range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same maybe a few degrees higher. Near-70 highs and lows mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Hopefully the coastal storm is out of here by Saturday. Let’s see how it all looks in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™