Rough Start. Nice Finish.

Discussion: The storm system is currently (Friday afternoon) approaching the S Great Lakes area. This will sever the east coast ridge leaving pieces above and below it. The above piece should stop the low’s northward progression overnight tonight (Friday night) and force it east towards NJ/NYC and out over the ocean tomorrow. The lower ridge piece will then retrograde back into the C US and then slowly push E back over the E US and out to sea next week. A trough pattern should then form for the E US from ~March 10-24. That’s the period I am watching for potential snowstorm development. Nothing specific just yet just the opening of a window to a pattern favorable for snowstorm development. For tonight’s approaching storm system, it’s rain and wind for most with maybe a coating to an inch or so of wintry mix for the highest NWNJ elevations only. I still think wind will be the headline, especially late-tonight through Saturday morning. The winds should start picking up after sunset. I also still think the N Jersey Shore will see the highest coastal flooding levels vs the S Jersey Shore due to low track and proximity of cyclonic wind direction. But the entire Jersey Shore should expect minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding in this period. Winds will switch from onshore to W/NW at some point Saturday morning which will help the elevated tidal waters push back out into the ocean. The rest of the weekend looks good through Monday. Transitional improvement Saturday PM and mild/sunny for Sunday-Monday. A little rain Monday night into Tuesday morning from a clipper-like system coming from the W/NW but will be too warm for NJ with ridge still in place. Cooler Tuesday-Friday but mostly nice conditions. Friday starts the period of wintry interest.

Friday (March 3) high temperatures should max in the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should remain cloudy with rain (for most) moving in by late-afternoon/early evening. A wintry mix is possible N of I-80/NW of I-287 but nothing serious, likely C-1/2 type stuff in the highest elevations only. A rain and wind event for most of NJ. Winds should build from breezy to gusty, between this evening and overnight with the strongest winds occurring between midnight tonight (Friday) and daybreak tomorrow (Saturday). I recommend securing loose objects and small human beings. Areas away from the ocean and especially in NNJ/CNJ should see moderate winds out of the E/NE. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas should see moderate-to-high winds out of the SE. Can’t rule out gusts more than 50mph along the immediate coasts with lesser values away from the ocean. Minor-to-moderate coastal flooding is likely for ECNJ/SENJ overnight into Saturday morning.

Saturday (March 4) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts. High temperatures could be realized earlier than traditional peak afternoon hours. At some point during earlier AM hours, the rain will shut off and conditions will begin clearing/improving. Winds however should remain stiff/breezy, gusty at times, out of the W/NW throughout the day. Winds should subside heading into evening hours. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s/30s for most areas.

Sunday (March 5) high temperatures should push into the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. A milder feel. Skies should be mostly sunny with a milder feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates the milder Sunday weather spilling into Monday. A rainy Monday night into Tuesday for most (maybe wintry mix for NWNJ) then a cooler and more tranquil week from Tuesday-Friday. Highs in the upper-40s/lower-50s, lows in the 20s/30s type stuff. Still watching the middle of March for a possible wintry snap-back finale. Period of interest in general is March 10-24. That’s when multiple patterns will be aligned for snowstorm development, regardless of whether one happens. Lots of time to digest and analyze the period. For now, let’s weather out the rain (for most of NJ) and windstorm tonight/tomorrow morning and enjoy the improvement through the rest of the weekend. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™