Rough Start. Improvement in Sight.

Discussion: Ian’s span of impact is incredible. From the Caribbean, through Cuba, through Florida, into South Carolina, interior SE US, etc. And now, it’s going to fart kick us as it heads away from the east coast. As I discussed in yesterday’s article, the upper-jet has moved off to the E. We’re now stuck under a hung-back upper-level low that will stay in the general coastal Mid-Atlantic US region until Wednesday.  The latest trends are showing this upper low a little more organized which could propagate downwards to a stronger surface low powering the coastal storm. This could make the coastal storm flex a bit Monday night into Tuesday meaning higher winds and another solid coastal flooding storm surge shot for Tuesday afternoon’s high tide. The highest level of fruition would a re-named subtropical cyclone but let’s not jump to that conclusion yet. For now, let’s just consider that there are signs of slight intensification Monday PM into Tuesday. Wednesday looks like the day this will finally pull away from impacting CNJ/SNJ. NWNJ and most of NENJ have seen very little rain or wind from all this. By Wednesday evening sunset, most areas should be warming and clearing. Thursday and Friday then look mild with temps reaching 70+. A cold front (looks mostly dry outside of a few showers) is then strongly modeled for Friday night which would reset the weekend back to the cold and crisp feel we traditionally know as Fall. There’s another tropical development (Invest 91L) that should be crossing into the Caribbean Sea (over the S Lessers) in about 3 days. Not much else to do but watch it. Same sort of starting point as Ian however this one looks to hug the S Caribbean coast a little more which would likely mean a fizzle somewhere near the Yucatan Peninsula.  

Monday (Oct 3) high temperatures should only reach the 50s for most areas. Skies should vary slightly. NWNJ has the best chance to stay dry and see some sun. But the other lower 2/3 of NJ looks mostly cloudy with periods of rain continuing. There might be some breaks but more rain is expected off the ocean. Winds should be light-to-breezy away from the ocean but gusty along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Wind direction looks like NE or N/NE. Coastal flooding remains the safety hazard of concern for the Jersey shore, especially the high tide just after noon. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most areas as the coastal storm continues/possibly strengthens.

Tuesday (Oct 4) high temperatures should again only reach the 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more periods of rain likely, especially along and SE of 95/NJTP. Winds should remain breezy/gusty off the ocean and felt most along the immediate coastal areas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the coastal storm flex a little on Tuesday. Coastal flooding issues still in play. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from elevations to coasts as the coastal storm continues.

Wednesday (Oct 5) looks like a day of transition. A rainy and windy start with the system eventually pushing out to sea by afternoon/early evening. With any luck we’ll see the sun poke through for afternoon hours before setting. But it does look to eventually reach the low-to-mid 60s for afternoon high temperatures. Winds should be lighter out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from elevations to coasts with a drier feel.  

Thursday (Oct 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a few clearing clouds around. This should feel quite nice after the prolonged coastal storm. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most areas.

Friday (Oct 7) high temperatures should reach near-70 for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 as a cold front pushes through. The front looks mostly dry but cannot rule out a few PM showers with it.

An early look at the weekend indicates a cold and crisp weekend behind the Friday PM cold front. Afternoon highs ranging 60-65. Overnight lows ranging 35-45 for most (closer to 50 near ocean). Let’s see how it looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC