Roller Coaster Temps Continue

Discussion: The volatile roller coaster of temperature swings continues. The last few days have been cold as heck as Arctic air settled back in. There certainly has been no shortage of cold this winter. Only a shortage of snow for many. Two troughs will affect NJ this week. The first, a very dynamic trough with sold vorticity to deliver early season boomers mid-week. Then a less cyclonic trough capable of producing a snow event Sunday into Monday if it threads the needle with overnight timing and vort phasing.

We will now see a transitional Tuesday as temps gradually moderate and S/SW winds begin increasing. A warm front will pass through early Wednesday morning bringing clouds and showers to start the day. Once that clears to the N, expect the sun to poke out with milder and more humid conditions late-morning into afternoon. That’s when most will feel the warm sector spike. Attention will then turn to the W as a linear stormfront approaches. Because it’s so early in thunderstorm season, the colder air aloft will be more supportive of hail formation. I will not be surprised to see hail reports with tomorrow’s afternoon-evening stormfront. Otherwise a period of heavy downpours and gusty winds are the most reasonable expectations with a small non-zero chance of an isolated tornado or two. But yeah, it’s going to feel warm and maybe even a little sticky before all heck breaks loose with the storm front later in the afternoon/evening on Wednesday. I imagine storm chasers will be following the storm front closely from tornado alley (TX/OK/KS) through at least the interior E US on Wednesday. Another reasonable expectation are strong S/SW winds Tuesday before the storms and then strong W/NW winds behind the storm…the warm front->warm sector->cold front->cold sector nature of the Norwegian Cyclone Model.  Winds should remain gusty and stiff into much of Thursday before eventually relaxing by Friday as temps fall steadily into the weekend.

Saturday seems seasonably cool and dry but Sunday looks somewhat interesting. Definitely too warm for snow to fall and stick during the day. But overnight hours should allow for temps to fall just below freezing. Two energy streams will moving across the US from W to E. If the S piece races ahead and turns the trough negative, then NJ could be looking at a snowstorm (typically NWNJ is favored over SENJ in a situation like this). If the S piece of energy remains slower and held back, then the trough will stay tilted positive and eject the S stream low out to sea to the S of NJ via upper-level steering currents spreading away from the positive trough. It’s that simple. The Euro picked up on this, especially the AI version, a few days ago but lost it to a slower S stream. The GFS has been excited about it today but just lost it a bit to the S of NJ with the latest 00z run. I’ll be watching in case more guidance picks it up. But right now, it has weak support as a thread the needle situation.

Forecast

Tuesday (March 4) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most NJ areas. Skies should start cloudy and improve by afternoon. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the S/SW, windiest along the SENJ coast. Gusts to 40mph+ possible. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (March 5) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most NJ areas with 60+ not off the table for typical warmer spots of CNJ/SNJ away from the ocean. Skies should start cloudy with spotty showers, then clear for afternoon before more rain arrives from the W in the form of downpours and thunderstorms between afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms could be severe for wind and/or hail. Expect gusty winds out of the S ahead of the thunderstorms and then breezy-to-gusty winds out of the W/NW behind the thunderstorms. Rain should be more of a thin strip (shorter duration)…the stuff that looks like spring/summer storms on radar. Overnight lows should fall back into the 40s as skies improve but breezy/gusty winds prevail.

Thursday (March 6) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty at times, out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should take a hard fall into the 25-35 range NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (March 7) high temperatures should reach the 45-50 range for most NJ areas with clear sunny skies. Winds should relax out of the gusty status to just breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the 35-40 range NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (March 8-9) indicates fair conditions Saturday with most reaching the 45-55 range for highs and 25-35 range Saturday night. Sunday into Monday is a weak snowstorm signal that I am watching but with temperatures only marginally cold overnight and NW of 95 and a lack of model consensus, I’m just casually watching for it to drop off model guidance or gain support over the next few days. I’d give it a 25% chance as of now. I’ll revisit accordingly. Have a great rest of your week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC