Relief!

Discussion: This week we’ll see average to just below-average geopotential heights. The stubborn W US ridge will really flex this week forcing troughing in the E US. Therefore, we’re cooler and drier this week in the E US but still just a hair unsettled. The most immediate change you should notice is lower humidity. The return flow influence from the Bermuda high is now, and for the rest of the week, pushed out to sea by the upper-level troughing. This will prevent the excessive 74-79 dew points from settling across NJ. Instead, our dew points will be in the 60s Monday-Wednesday then take a dive into upper 40s and 50s for Thursday-Friday. I imagine Monday-Wednesday will still be “warm-to-hot” depending on how most see summer but we will continue to enjoy at least the partial relief that started yesterday (Sunday). We’ll have to watch the frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday. Right now, it’s modeled mostly dry but common sense would assume enough lifting to produce showers and thunderstorms. The OMG weather feelz should then really ramp up for Thursday-Friday when the N winds set up behind the FROPA. Saturday then looks like a warm front invasion from S/SW to N/NE. I can’t imagine that won’t be cloudy, foggy, and possibly stormy at times. Humid air will be returning into a cold/dry air mass. Then it looks like Sunday-Tuesday are hot and humid again (transient) before an even colder and drier, longer-duration, plunge of northerly air mass moves in next Wednesday. Aside from some stormy frontal passages, there’s an abundance of beautiful weather conditions expected over the next few weeks. Coastal ocean temps are ranging from about 73-75F from Sandy Hook to Cape May so we’re way past onshore flow feeling cool/cold. We’re still about a month away from the near-80 water conditions though.  

Monday (July 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (July 20) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most. Coastal areas low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (July 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most. Skies should start mostly sunny but showers and thunderstorms are possible for afternoon-evening hours with an overnight cold front expected. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (July 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

Friday (July 23) high temperatures should reach the low-80s for most. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Afternoon-evening isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs capped in the 80s. Saturday looks like the better day. Sunday possibly stormy.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™