Relentless Heat and Humidity Continues

Discussion: I hope everyone had a great 4th of July and weekend! This entire week will feature conditions like “Florida in the summer” if you are familiar. Hazy, dangerously hot, and excessively humid with thunderstorms possible anytime, especially during PM hours of the day. Why is this happening? There’s an upper low that has been and will continue to stall off the SE US. This is helping to keep a stalled high over the interior SE US. Additionally, this high is keeping a frontal boundary to the NW of our area. So the flow between the NW boundary and the SE US high has become a relentless SW jet of heat and humidity from the Gulf Coast region of the SE US. The surface result are temperatures exceeding 90 and dew point temperatures exceeding 70 (even 75 at times). On every individual day in the forecast below, I mention the health hazards of being outside in this heat and humidity. Please have them in mind and mitigate the best you can (light colored clothes, adequate hydration, as much shade as possible, etc.). The entire week looks relentless but the worst should be mid-week. As far as thunderstorm chances are concerned, they are possible on any day. Normally we need a lifting mechanism (low center, moving frontal boundary, shear, etc.) to hoist the surface humidity into the cooler sky aloft to condense and fall as rain, forming the vertical friction (against rising air) to produce lightning and furthermore outflow boundaries producing wind gusts. But with the surface so hot and moist this week, there’s enough adequate lift (heat rises) to produce localized/isolated thunderstorms anywhere, anytime, any day this week. Watch for any sea breeze fronts to provide additional lifting along the SENJ/ECNJ Jersey Shore. We saw one of those yesterday in S Ocean/SE Burlington County and the day before in N Ocean/S Monmouth coast area. But yeah, any day can storm this week in this sea of heat and humidity expected to last the entire week. Beryl is making landfall in S TX and Beryl’s remnant low will move N and E towards the NE US. We (NJ) stand no direct tropical cyclone impacts from Beryl’s remnants but could see secondary impacts in the form of enhanced rainfall and humidity for Thursday-Friday of this week.

Monday (July 8) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should push into low-to-mid 80s. High humidity levels will make it feel hotter and presents danger of dehydration, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke. Skies should be hazy at times and mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide.

Tuesday (July 9) high temperatures should again reach well into the 90s away from the ocean. Coastal regions should max just over 80. High humidity levels will remain in-place presenting the danger of dehydration, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke. Skies should start mixed with more sun but transition to more clouds. A slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday than Monday, especially for PM hours of day. But both days could produce in this environment. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should again stay above 70 statewide with shower/storm chances persisting.

Wednesday (July 10) high temperatures should reach the upper-80s/lower-90s for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions closer to 80. A few degrees cooler than Monday and Tuesday however still hazy, hot, and very humid presenting the danger of dehydration, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more thunderstorms possible, likely isolated-to-scattered (not widespread). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S (breeziest along the SNJ/SENJ coasts). Overnight lows should stay above 70 with isolated showers and storms possible.

Thursday (July 11) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Coastal regions closer to 85. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with high humidity relentlessly persisting, keeping thedanger of dehydration, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke in place yet again. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially afternoon hours, and could be connected with Beryl’s remnants. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 with isolated showers and storms possible.

Friday (July 12) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most NJ locations. Not as hot as prior weekdays. However still humid and still a disgusting feel with health hazards in-place. Skies should be hazy and mixed with more clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms are possible at any time but likely favor PM hours of day. Like Thursday, showers and thunderstorms could be loosely connected to Beryl’s remnants. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to near-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend (July 13-14) indicates more of the same. Hazy, hot, and uncomfortably humid with chances for showers and thunderstorms at any time favoring PM hours of day. Highs in the upper-80s/90s. Lows near or just above 70. A very hot and humid week overall. Please stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows. Be safe! JC

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