Refreshing Conditions Return (Sept 23-27)

Discussion: Monday looks like the third and final day of the mini-warm streak that began yesterday (Saturday). A cold front should push through Monday night into Tuesday morning and return the region to refreshing conditions through Friday. Then another upper-level ridge of heat should build over the E US for Saturday through about October 3. We’ll be on the front side of the ridge again, not the hottest part. The hottest part should be near the Great Lakes again. Our ridge placement should allow high pressure to keep NJ cooler than areas just to our W..but still reaching highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Long-range model guidance is pretty locked on a solid cold front pushing through for the weekend of Oct 4-6…like highs in the 60s lows in the 30s type stuff. With that said it looks like the roller coaster should continue between refreshing/dry and warm/dry. The lack of precipitation should continue as some areas are starting to dry up towards drought status. The wet summer and dry fall should enhance foliage. Don’t let me down NJ photographers!

Tropics: As expected Jerry will curve and take a close pass at Bermuda in the next few days. Jerry poses no threat to the E US aside from continued rip currents and surfer’s paradise swell sets. Tropical Storm Karen has be a little curious. Right now Karen is in the W Caribbean and should break out of the N Caribbean kind of like how Sandy did. Karen is modeled to then stall near the 25N latitude (due S of Bermuda) around this Thursday. Where it goes from there is very uncertain as the upper-level dynamics of the westerlies remain in a very meridional pattern. We could be talking more about Karen in the near future but for now…no immediate tropical threats to NJ.

Monday (Sept 23) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for most areas. WCNJ/SWNJ has the best chance to break 90. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid to start. Can’t rule out an afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorms with these conditions. Otherwise cloud coverage and rain chances should increase through PM hours. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. Areas away from the ocean could flirt with 80. Skies should be partly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Sept 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most maybe just over 80 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas maybe mid-80s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Sept 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates the start of another warmer streak that should last well into next week. Looks like highs in the low-to-mid 80s with overnight lows in the upper-50s/lower-60s type stuff. Should last through about Thursday of next week then temperatures are expected to fall drastically ~Oct 4. Also I am watching what Karen will due. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC