Discussion: The rainfall did not produce much earlier this week. SNJ saw some drizzle/light rain at times but for the most part, our water tables are continuing to lessen. The remnants from the tropical disturbance sheared out to the ocean and a piece broke off to the SW of NJ in two segments. The Baltimore, MD area saw much more rain than anywhere in NJ. The good news is that the possible break for this weekend is now in-play. I’m not seeing rain this weekend, just some refreshing traditional September air mass for most. The only areas that will remain a little dicey are ECNJ/SENJ coastal regions. While winds will be much less away from the ocean (just light-to-breezy), coastal areas are subject to higher winds…out of the N/NE to start this weekend and ending out of the E/NE. This will keep the rip current concerns in-play for late-season swimmers as well as the general threat for at least minor coastal flooding. I’m not feeling moderate coastal flooding but for the sake of safety, let’s allow a small chance for isolated instances of moderate stage coastal flooding up and down the NJ coast. Again, likely just minor. Next week we drop off for high temps starting around Tuesday. Highs should struggle for most of NJ to escape the 60s during peak afternoon sunlight. Coasties will have a better chance to reach/break 70 due to marine influence. This temp drop is likely due to the expected zonal flow establishing after Saturday. Overnight lows however will not likely drop into the 40s…maybe just 50s…because the zonal flow will be fed by a moist and stale=temp air mass coming off the approaching front-side of a trough. If we had NW flow, it would drop overnight. But that’s not the case. So expect highs in the upper-60s and lows in the 50s next week. Wed-Thurs looks like the only unsettled period where rain is possible. On another note, I am tracking another tropical disturbance that could blow up in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast between Sept 26-30. Would form in S Gulf closer to Sept 26 and make landfall closer to Sept 30. The steering currents feature a lot of moving parts though…so pinpointing landfall is very difficult for now. My gut feel says somewhere between the TX coast and FL panhandle, with New Orleans right in the middle. Best I can do for now. As of now, the zonal flow should shear the storm eastward and out into the Atlantic Ocean to the S of NJ. I will report accordingly as we closer approach. But as of now, no threat to NJ.
Friday (Sept 20) high temperatures should reach near-80 away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 70s along the coast and up in NNJ elevations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NE, breeziest, possibly gusty at times, right along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Rip currents will be strong and minor coastal flooding is possible. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s from NNJ Elevations to SNJ coasts.
Saturday (Sept 21) high temperatures should reach near-80 away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 70s along the coast and up in NNJ elevations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NE even for coasties. The ocean could still be rough though with rip currents and minor coastal flooding possible. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to lower-60s from NNJ Elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (Sept 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should start mostly cloudy but improve throughout the day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE, breeziest along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Marine issues still in-play (rip currents and minor coastal flooding). Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ Elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at next week (Sept 23-27) indicates cooler conditions but likely unsettled by mid-week. Highs could max in the 60s but overnight lows would likely stay in the 50s due to cloud cover insulation. Rainiest days look like Wed-Thurs. Let’s revisit in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™