Raw Start. Mild Finish (March 23-27)

Discussion: For the most part we’ll see a zonal jet pattern overhead this week before pushing a little to our N by the weekend. 500mb geopotential heights should remain elevated aside from two shortwaves Monday and Wednesday with very little upper-level disturbance. At the surface these shortwaves will correlate with two synoptic low pressure systems bringing moderate-to-heavy rain and light-to-moderate winds…again Monday and Wednesday. The higher elevations of NWNJ could see some snow mix in with either of these two systems. The Monday system has a better chance to see snow mix in than the Wednesday system primarily N of I-80 and NW of I-287. As far as accumulations go I’m not really feeling it outside of the highest elevations of Sussex County. And we’re only talking a few inches max up there. For the rest (most) of New Jersey cold rain is the most probable outcome. Both systems should feature onshore flow capable of producing minor coastal flooding. Tuesday should be a nicer day between the two systems as a weak and transient area of high pressure pushes through. Otherwise once the Wednesday system clears our we should turn milder for Thursday and Friday with a general unsettled look for the weekend.

Monday (March 23) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of moderate-to-heavy rain likely for the lower 2/3 of NJ (S of I-80/SW of I-287). NNJ, especially NWNJ, could see snow mix in and possibly accumulate a few inches in the highest elevations of Sussex County. Not a big deal and most likely a cold rain given the above-freezing surface temperature profile. Winds should be breezy out of the E, possibly gusty at times along the immediate coast. Minor coastal flooding is possible. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (March 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds during the day. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-40 for most areas with more rain moving in.

Wednesday (March 25) high temperatures should range from lower-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more periods of rain and onshore winds likely. With that said another minor risk for coastal flooding exists. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE felt more so along the immediate coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ. NNJ, especially NWNJ, could see some snow mix in but would likely struggle to accumulate outside of the very top Sussex County elevations.

Thursday (March 26) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (March 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should feature a full mixed-bag of sun, clouds, rain showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates slightly cooler temperatures than Thurs-Fri with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s. Saturday looks more unsettled than Sunday but both days currently look subject to periods of rain showers. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™