Rainy Start to Cold Dry Finish

Discussion: The general look and feel of everything suggest to me that we’re finished dealing with the N Hemisphere’s coldest Arctic air for a while. Instead, we’re going to deal with a maritime polar airmass, currently moving into NW US/SW Canada as the trough pattern gradually exists the E US. Sometimes this is referred to as stale Canadian air. It’s still cold in general (highs in 30s/40s – lows in 20s/30s) but only supportive of snow accumulation overnight when temps are cold enough, not so much during the day when many spots rise above freezing. It’s not like the Arctic conditions where highs stay below freezing statewide and overnight lows drop to single-digits/teens, even negative. So that’s where we’re heading to for the first two weeks of February. Stale cold not fresh Arctic cold.

I do take note that both the GFS and Euro are suggesting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) splitting the polar vortex in the Feb 10-15 period. If this came into fruition, we might be dealing with another prolonged Arctic outbreak in the second half of February. Something to watch as we get closer. For now, we’re out of a pattern supportive for snowfall and instead have to rely on signals threading the needle, falling overnight, or overcoming daytime temps with heavy snow rates. It’s possible but less probable than a more supportive pattern. I think we stay this way through at least halfway through February. I’ll cover any snow chances during but it likely won’t be like the events that occurred in the first 2/3 of January.

For this weekend, precipitation could begin pushing into NJ from the W/SW as early as midnight tonight (Thursday night) or just after. I expect a surface line-of-freezing to initially set up somewhere between I-80 and I-78 but cut some of NENJ off around I-287. Until those areas below freezing at the surface (N of I-78 and NW of I-287) warm above freezing, there is at least a freezing rain situation possible from midnight tonight until the sun rises tomorrow (Friday). I’m leaning more towards freezing rain rather than sleet or snow due to the warm air advecting in the lower-mid levels above the colder surface. Once the sun is up Friday, all areas go over to rain. But from midnight tonight through about 6am tomorrow, expect possible slickness in NWNJ. Rain should wrap up Friday night, hopefully delivering an expected .25” to an inch of much needed rainfall. We then dry out Saturday with breezy conditions and turn colder through Sunday PM when some light snow/rain showers are possible mainly N of I-78.

Forecast

Real quick, after NJ ranged from 29-44F N to S today (Thursday), overnight temps will drop to the 25-35F range N to S as precipitation approaches from the W/SW around midnight or just after.

Friday (Jan 31) high temperatures should push to the 40-50 range. Precipitation should move in from the W/SW around midnight or during early-AM hours. NNJ/NWNJ could see some ice/freezing rain prior to sunrise which could affect morning rush hour commute. Once warm enough, all of NJ is subject to rain for most of the day, ending at night. NNJ is looking at a quarter-to-half-inch of rain. SNJ is looking at a half-inch to an inch of rainfall. Divide NNJ/SNJ at I-195. Winds should be out of the S/SW, light-to-breezy away from the ocean and breezy-to-gusty along the ocean. Overnight lows should drop to the 30-40 range after rain ends prior to midnight.

Saturday (Feb 1) high temperatures should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should improve through morning hours and yield a mostly sunny day. It will be breezy out of the NW though. Overnight lows should fall to the 15-25 range.

Sunday (Feb 2) high temperatures should range from 30-40 N to S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. NNJ, mainly N of I-78 could see some snow/rain showers between afternoon and evening hours but with little-to-no accumulation. Areas S of I-78 likely nothing. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall to the 28-35 range as any NNJ flurries wrap up.

An early look at next week (Feb 3-7) indicates a milder dry Monday followed by a dry cooldown for Tuesday-Wednesday. Thursday-Friday is a bit interesting as NNJ could deal with wintry precip while SNJ possibly deals with thunderstorms and rain. I’ll be following Feb 6-7 as the next storm signal however at the moment, it’s not wintry for all of NJ, mainly NNJ and some of CNJ. More to come. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC