Rainy and Windy Conditions Expected

Discussion: The upper jet should remain over or just S of NJ for much of the near future. 500mb geopotential height analysis indicates correlating below-average height anomalies over NJ for the period ending ~May 8. Overall, that speaks most to below-average temperatures. We should turn the corner towards a sustained warm pattern either during or right after next weekend. At the lower levels we have a very unsettled look for this Friday (tomorrow) through Sunday night/Monday morning. I’m seeing lots of rain and wind for New Jersey from several low pressure systems slowly moving through/around the troughing. On-and-off rainfall, breezy-to-gusty winds, and cloudy skies should dominate this weekend. Winds do not look damaging but certainly at least nuisance, especially along the ocean-facing coasts. Next week, with the exception of passing showers on Tuesday, looks drier with a slow temp build by the end of next weekend. Either Sunday of next weekend or Monday/Tuesday immediately after should mark the transition into average temperatures (lower-70s). I don’t know about you but I’m loosing patience with the current pattern of highs just reaching 60 and overnight lows still down into upper-30s. Does it feel good in October? Yes it does, especially after a hot summer. But early May? No, we need highs into the 70s </rant>.

Friday (April 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s for most areas. Maybe a few spots push into lower-60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain developing by afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions facing the ocean should see the highest wind gusts. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from elevations to coasts as E winds and rainfall persist into Saturday.

Saturday (April 29) high temperatures should range from 50-60 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy as periods of rain and E winds continue. There should be a few steadier/heavier periods of rain at times but a drenching misty rainfall is more likely overall. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range from elevations to coasts as rainfall lets up some.

Sunday (April 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ areas. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with more periods of rainfall likely. Winds should be breezy out of the SE, possibly gusty at times and felt most along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should remain above 50 statewide as more rain and wind continues into Monday morning.

An early look at next week indicates some passing showers on Tuesday but otherwise much drier conditions than this immediate weekend. I’m seeing 60s and even 70s later in the week…which are still actually a degree or two below average for the time of year but we’ll take it! By next weekend we should be coming out of the below-average temp pattern and transitioning into more of an average/slightly above-average pattern of temperatures. I’m focused on May 8, give or take a day, for the pattern change. Hang in there until and have the best weekend you can have given the expected rain and wind. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC