Discussion: A trough will swing through the E US this weekend after this evening’s rain moves out. This will keep the weekend colder for NJ with the coldest point likely occurring just before sunrise Sunday morning. The trough then moves out and a series of higher geopotential heights dominates the rest of February into early March. This should inhibit any snowstorms from forming until at least March 8. I am seeing a synoptic storm signal in the March 8-10 period however currently looks more like a rainy nor’easter than a snowstorm. If winter is going to have one final breath, it would be March 10-end of calendar winter. And at that point, most do not want snow and it will struggle to accumulate on roads without being a major/historic snow event like 1993 or the 2018 systems. Feb 29 will close the 8th inning. The 8th inning of winter will be March 1 to the solstice.
Friday (Feb 23) high temperatures have maxed in the 45-50 range for most NJ locations. Extreme NNJ slightly colder. Rain is affecting areas SE of 95/NJTP and should clear out to sea by midnight tonight. Areas NW of 95 are drier but cloudy. Winds should remain light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 30-40 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Saturday (Feb 24) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s. A colder look and feel with a mix of sun and clouds. You might see some rain/snow showers try to form mid-day for SNJ however surface temps will be near or just above 40 so no accumulation. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the N/NW making it feel slightly colder. Overnight lows should range from mid-teens to mid-20s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Sunday (Feb 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at next week indicates moderating temperatures to start and milder temperatures to finish. It’s that time of year when the ocean is still cold (lower-40s). So, NJ areas away from the ocean, including NNJ, have the best chance to reach 60 mid-to-late next week. Areas along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts however could be held to the 40s/low-50s by marine influence. Conditions look most unsettled in the Tuesday-Wednesday period with a warm front likely bringing rain Tuesday night through most of Wednesday and a cold front pushing through early Thursday AM. No snowstorms on the horizon as an unfavorable snow pattern sets up through at least March 10. Can’t speak beyond that except for the reminder that snow has happened before that late but it is rare. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™