Mother’s day should be okay. Saturday looks like a wash. Let’s break it down…
Discussion: Not much has changed in the last 24 hours on model guidance. A series shortwaves will phase and produce a powerful nor’easter for coastal New England in the Sunday-Tuesday period. New Jersey should see impacts from both shortwaves pre-phase in the Saturday AM-Sunday AM period. The southern stream shortwave should move and transfer faster than the northern stream shortwave. This will create a lop-sided longwave trough before cutting off from the jet stream. The surface low should track right over the Delmarva Peninsula near the SENJ coast. With that said, breezy-to-gusty winds could accompany the expected ~1-2 inches of rainfall. Coastal flooding and beach erosion concerns should be held to minor criteria. It all clears out for mother’s day but northerly flow should make for a dry but chillier day. I’ve been looking at the ~May 18 period for the return of heat for quite some time now. That is still on track and right around the corner.
Friday (May 12) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Isolated-to-scattered light rain is possible, especially heading into evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, possibly breezy for coastal regions. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. Coastal regions might hang around 50.
Saturday (May 13) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall is likely (1-2 inches) along with breezy-to-gusty winds out of the E. SNJ should start a few hours earlier than NNJ and should also end a few hours earlier than NNJ. In general, I expect rain to start by late-Saturday morning and wrap up by sunrise Sunday morning. That puts Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening in peak rainstorm conditions. Embedded thunderstorms are possible should precipitation become convective enough. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s for most as rain tapers off by sunrise. Winds should eventually switch from onshore to W/NW with the departure of cyclonic flow.
Sunday (May 14) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A few isolated sprinkles cannot be ruled out but most should see a dry mother’s day. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. Coastal regions might hang around 50.
An early look at next week indicates the return of warmer temperatures. Monday and Tuesday might be transitional days of general improvement but I’m seeing 80s from Wednesday (May 18) forward. Beautiful weather right around the corner! Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™