Rain and Storms Start the Week

Discussion: I feel like a broken record at this point but lower geopotential heights will continue to dominate the region’s weather pattern. A series of upper-lows should meander over our region for the foreseeable future. Most models are holding off any kind of ridging for the E US until after the solstice. What does that mean for the surface until then? Slightly below-average temperatures and unsettled conditions meaning showers/thunderstorms on any given day but not a whole lot of rainfall. With the lower heights, moisture (water vapor) has to travel vertically less distance into the sky before condensing into rain/storms in lower temperatures. Cumulus/cumulonimbus cloud formation is very sensitive to any sort of lift in this setup. A sea breeze front pushing onto land off the ocean is one example. So for these reasons, most days should be nice but afternoon/evening isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible any day. Two frontal systems should push some rain through, one tonight and the other Wednesday. But no significant sources of synoptic rainfall are showing until closer to the solstice. Models continue to increase chances for a wetter pattern June 19-forward. Some even suggesting tropical remnants could be in play. Way to early to discuss anything more than that. But it’s hard not to look forward to the next rain chances. NJ still better than PA re: drought concerns…but we’re not heading in the right direction. Anyway, the warm sector spikes ahead of the front today. The rain/stormfront is approaching WNJ now (Monday 2pm) and should clear out of NENJ just before midnight…a slow push across NJ from W to E. The rest of the week is straightforward.

Monday (June 12) high temperatures should range from lower-80s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should continue to increase in cloudiness with a humid feel. Rain and thunderstorms are likely and should slowly push through NJ from W to E between 2pm and 10pm. SWNJ first, NENJ last. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S, gusty under/near thunderstorms. Overnight lows should drop to around 60 for most NJ locations.

Tuesday (June 13) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a more pleasant feel (lower humidity). Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (June 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Areas away from the ocean have the best chance to break 80. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are possible along a frontal system. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (June 15) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Can’t rule out an isolated spring shower. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (June 16) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most NJ locations. Skies should vary from mostly sunny in SNJ to cloudier in NNJ. NNJ has best chance for a passing shower. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates high temperatures near 80 with unsettled conditions developing. It could be the start of a wetter pattern to transition us into the hotter summer heat.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC