Pleasant Start. Heat and Humidity Returns for 4th

Discussion: The forecast is straight forward. The pleasant weather for the rest of tonight (Monday) into tomorrow (Tuesday) is from the backside NW flow of a baby trough swinging through. The E US then establishes ridging that lasts through this entire week into next week. That means typical summer heat, humidity, and thunderstorms…though it might be the weekend before any decent thunderstorms form. The 4^th looks good for most outside of a little shower activity in SWNJ (we’ll see). The humidity is currently out to lunch but should return in time for the 4^th into this coming weekend. Some of you might have heard about the early season Hurricane in the southern Atlantic hurricane basin. This hasn’t happened since 1933 and could be a sign of an active 2024 hurricane season. There’s not much you can deduce for New Jersey for this, but certainly concerning for the entire hurricane basin. The ocean is anomalously warm with low shear and Sahara dust. Put it this way, I hope I’m not too busy this August-October.

Monday (July 1) high temperatures have likely maxed around 80 away from the ocean and low-70s along the coast and upper NNJ elevations. Humidity is low and skies should remain clear overnight as temps bottom out in the 50-65 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (July 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas, maybe just under 80 for coastal regions. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (July 3) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean and closer to 80 near the coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean with a good shot of some exceeding 90. Coastal areas closer to 80. Welcome back humidity! Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, especially for SWNJ areas. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (July 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s away from the ocean with another good shot of exceeding 90. Coastal areas near-80 again. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hover near 70 statewide.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same maybe slightly more unsettled. Many reaching 90 (coast closer to 80) Saturday and Sunday with plenty of sun but isolated/scattered thunderstorms possible. Very typical warm summery setup. I’ll try to update Wednesday night if possible or if there are any major changes to the forecast. Otherwise everyone have a Happy 4^th of July and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™