Outlook through Christmas

Discussion: A broad area of high pressure has provided colder flow the last few days while it was set up to our NW. It is now passing over the east coast and heading out to sea. While the high is out there, it will provide a large and broad return flow into NJ out of the S and SW. This is going to produce milder temperatures for NJ from tomorrow (Saturday) through about December 28^th (Thursday). The upper levels correlate with this Dec 28^th transition as a ridge gives way to a trough for E US weather pattern dominance. A rainy transition is expected in the ~Dec 27-28 period which will transition us back into a colder pattern to close out the last few days of 2023 and lead us into 2024. So, warmth through Christmas until Thursday, December 28. Rain Dec 27-28, and then cold. El Nino has dominated December with a near-snowless and milder outcome. However, the configuration of sea surface temperatures looks to change by the first week of January which should have colder and possibly snowier impacts for NJ in January. It’s a frustrating first two innings for the snow lover but a long ballgame to go.

Friday (Dec 22) overnight skies should remain mostly cloudy as low temperatures range from mid-20s to mid-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Dec 23) high temperatures should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Can’t rule out a passing shower, especially for NNJ overnight. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Dec 24 – Christmas Eve) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with light rain possible. Rain looks to favor AM hours but could still be patchy through PM hours. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Monday (Dec 25 – Christmas Day) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s.

An early look at next week indicates more highs in the 50s…through about Thursday, December 28^th. Wednesday-Thursday (December 27-28) looks rainy and should transition us from the milder setup back to cold. No snowstorms are in sight at the moment. There will not be a White Christmas and likely no measurable snow the rest of the year. Long-range signals indicate a colder and more favorable pattern for snowstorm development by the first or second week of January. A scoreless first two innings for the snow lover. We do have a lot of time though. I’m only just changing the winter graphic banners now. Have a great weekend and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! Happy holidays to all! Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™