Discussion: Last night was a very frequent lightning show for many across SNJ. Areas in central and NE PA also got hit hard leaving a gap between, through NNJ/CNJ of many who did not get hit. Instead, these areas zapped up the energy with storms the prior night. I try hard to convey that not all areas are guaranteed to get hit. The best you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If you look at the comments on my social radar posts from last night, you’ll see some who got nailed arguing with some who missed. You never know exactly until it’s approaching on radar. The best we forecasters can do is project a broad range of where severe storms are possible/probable. We cannot nail their exact location the day before. It’s the nature of it and most of you know this as common sense. Some of you however, by your comments, seem to think we are issuing written gospel rather than guidance. </rant>
Before we turn our heads to the next period of potential severe thunderstorms (Wed PM into Thurs AM), let’s cover the non-eventful times of this week. Today we see a very short period of relief behind last night’s storms. Temps in the 70s/80s with lower dew points in the 50s. A pleasant and refreshing feel after recent conditions. The heat and humidity waste no time however in reloading for Tuesday and peaking again on Wednesday prior to the next stormfront. Thursday and Friday then look warm and pleasant again before the heat and humidity reloads for this weekend. With that said, expect a mixed feel this week and through this weekend as conditions bounce back and forth between warm/pleasant and hot/humid.
Wednesday PM storms will be driven by the front of another trough swinging through. By now, you might have noticed that storm fronts coordinate with the front of troughs. The low rides the jet stream that carves out the trough and the surface cold front swings through beneath the front of the trough that swings through with SW flow. You also might have noticed that the back-side of a trough features NW flow and provides a temporary relief to hot and humid conditions found with ridging. Today we are seeing backside of current trough. On Wednesday, the new trough will push in as a low rides the jet and swings another stormfront through NJ. This one looks more powerful than last night. Most hazards are on the table including downpours and frequent lightning (likely) and then severe wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes (less likely but non-zero chance). I will put out an article tomorrow with more details. But from this range today, Wednesday PM into Thursday PM looks stormy/severe.
Monday (June 24) high temperatures should range from mid-to-upper 70s in NNJ Elevations to mid-80s along the SNJ coasts. Early AM hours were still a bit soupy but now that the cold front is through, it feels drier. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be breezy to occasionally gusty out of the W/NW. Max wind gusts should occur afternoon into early evening (up to 35-40mph) and then drop off by late-evening. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. With lower dew points than recent times, this should feel refreshing.
Tuesday (June 25) high temperatures should reach back near-90 for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal regions should hang in the lower-80s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. You should start feeling the return of higher humidity. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-70 with a few iso showers/storms around through Wednesday morning (favoring CNJ/SNJ).
Wednesday (June 26) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean. Might flirt with 100 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Coastal regions likely held in the 80-85 range prior to any sea breeze fronts. This should be the swampiest feeling day of the week humidity-wise. Skies should be mixed with sun and tropical cumulus clouds during the day. Severe thunderstorms are possible for Wed PM into Thurs AM hours. Right now window looks like 7pm Wed to 2-3am Thurs (NW areas hit first, SE areas hit last). I’ll provide an update on this tomorrow (Tuesday). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW, breeziest along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from 65-70 as the thunderstorm situation plays out (more details to come soon).
Thursday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Humidity should be broken slightly from the storms but still present. NWNJ would feel the driest, SENJ the most humid with a scaling range between. A rain-free clear day though with a few friendly clouds around. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (June 28) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s away from the ocean and hold in the 70s along the coast. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. An amazing day to be outside. Winds away from the ocean should be light out of the N/NW but areas along/near the coast should see more of an onshore E flow. Overnight lows should range from 55-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates very typical summer conditions. Highs in the 80s/near-90, elevated humidity reloading, afternoon/evening isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms, etc. Let’s take a closer look after we get through Wednesday PM-Thursday AM storms. Be safe! JC
Premium Services
KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.
My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™