Discussion: For this weekend there’s not much to speak of other than a weakening upper-level disturbance floating through the return flow of departing high pressure. For these reasons, Saturday and Sunday could feature some very isolated rain showers but not heavy and nowhere near a washout. Otherwise a mix of sun and clouds is most likely with relatively mild conditions. Next week looks much more interesting dynamics-wise. I’m seeing a very meridional pattern (+PNA and -NAO) with a deep trough forming in the E US and a strong correlating ridge in the W US. I don’t think NJ will capitalize on the coldest air of the trough as it will be slightly inland in the E US. We’ll actually be under warmer upper-level SW flow on the front-side of the trough. But regardless we’re still going to see highs struggle to escape the 60s for Wednesday-forward as the trough is blocked in place well into the first week of October. Get ready for some fall looking and feeling skies. This weekend through Tuesday however might just be summer’s last atmospheric gasp (70-80 and humid) despite what the calendar says. One last time. The tropics have calmed down with still no direct threats to NJ. This is now the time of year (late Sept into Oct) where we have to watch what originates out of the Caribbean Sea. The Cape Verde origin storms typically fade and fizzle out by Oct.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).F
Saturday (Sept 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a small chance of isolated showers between late-morning and early-afternoon. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.
Sunday (Sept 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a more humid feel. Can’t rule out some more mid-day rain showers. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s.
An early look at the rest of next week indicates relatively mild conditions spilling over into Monday-Tuesday (highs in the 70s, possibly flirting with 80). After that it might be a while before we see highs break into the 70 again. September looks to finish on the cooler, even colder, side. I can’t speak for later in October as transient warm periods are always possible. Just not in the near future. And yes, the title of this article is a reference to the play (now movie) Hamilton.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™