On Winter’s Doorstep

Discussion: Last night into this morning was a solid kick-off for snow season. I know that only NWNJ elevations (especially Sparta through Vernon) saw snow accumulations with the majority of NJ (lower 2/3) just seeing rain with a few flurries/snow showers in lower NNJ/WCNJ areas. But rest assured, there is more to come as we wade into snow season not even ankle-deep yet. The ballgame hasn’t even begun. We’re still in batting practice. Remaining precipitation will fizzle out today as it chases the departing low that should transfer from EPA/WNJ to just off Cape Cod by tonight (Friday night). Can’t rule out additional light snow accumulations today (Friday), mainly for NWNJ elevations still near 32 at the surface. But most damage was done overnight.

You should notice that today has a much colder look and feel. This should be the theme of the weekend, especially as straight line W/NW winds pick up behind the departing low. Precipitation should be kept at bay Saturday and Sunday outside of some lake-effect flurries, should they make it across parts of PA and NY State. A very low chance for this and likely for NWNJ areas only. The more realistic probability for this weekend are dry skies with flat-bottom wind clouds…highs 45-55 and lows 30-45.  Winds should eventually relax and allow a calmer Monday into Tuesday with similar temperature profile. On Tuesday, a cold front will push through. This cold front will be attached to the storm signal I was monitoring for Nov 26. Since that will pass W to E to the N of NJ, we’ll see the cold front on its S side. With that said, expect another gear of temperature step-down Wednesday into next weekend.

I’m watching the storm signal next Thursday (Thanksgiving), through Black Friday and into next Saturday morning. This general period will feature a few pieces of energy, that if brought together correctly, could produce a high travel impact event surrounding the holiday. If brought together loosely, it could mean just a few periods of lighter precipitation. The models are all over the place with this but are all showing at least something happening. I plan to discuss this in great detail after casually monitoring model guidance and upstream live observations over the weekend. My new video content starts Monday morning so we could have something to talk about. That’s when serious tracking would begin. But yes, it is still there.   

I was talking with Bobby Martich this morning. Told him I had the pre-winter feel of 2009-2010. He pointed out that we’re actually looking more like 2013-2014 as an analog. In either case, both were cold and snowy winters with ample setups favorable for supporting snow storms. I believe we’ve really snapped back here since the dry and warm period that ended last week. Next week is what it is…early but potential. But December is starting to look below average in temperature and above average in precipitation. There seems to be a few opportunities for snow showing up in the tail-end of our long-range forecasting comfort zone. As always, I will report accordingly.

In English: Snow and rain ends today, setting up a breezy and likely dry colder weekend of sun and flat-bottom wind clouds. Light rain possible Tuesday night takes us even colder for Wednesday into next weekend. Watching the Thanksgiving/Black Friday period for a potentially disruptive event for travel in the form of snow and/or rain. More to come

Forecast

Friday (Nov 22) high temperatures should range from near-freezing in the freshly snow-packed higher NWNJ elevations to mid-40s along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Fizzling precipitation (mainly NW of I-95/NJTP) whether snow or rain should end by evening. Additional light snow accumulation is possible, mainly on non-paved surfaces above 1000ft of elevation in NWNJ. There might be an interesting sunset for some, especially if you have the back-edge of the system still overhead with an open/clear SW horizon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 32-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.  

Saturday (Nov 23) high temperatures should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds (the friendly flat-bottom clouds). Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 30-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most areas down into the 30s.  

Sunday (Nov 24) high temperatures should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light-to-breezy (breeziest along ECNJ/SENJ coasts) out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with most areas falling below 35.  

An early look at next week (Nov 25-29) indicates more highs in the 50s Monday-Tuesday. I’m seeing some light frontal rain Tuesday as a system passes to the N of NJ. That will bring a cold front through and keep high temps in the 40s for Wednesday into the weekend (overnight lows down to 20s/30s). Focused attention now turns to the potential for a snow/rain event in the Thanksgiving/Black Friday period. My new forecast video products will begin supplementing the articles starting this coming Monday (Nov 25). Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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