Discussion: The dreaded weekend rain pattern continues. I feel like this should be a Star Wars crawl. It was nice to see this past weekend’s system exit in time for a salvageable Sunday. Rain totals varied wildly as expected with the Miller-B transfer. But most areas saw a nuisance rain event on Saturday. Moving forward, we’re going to continue a meridional jet pattern with alternating troughs and ridges pushing from W to E through NJ with the mid-latitude westerlies. This means alternating periods of milder awesomeness with periods of nuisance rain. We’re not cold enough to talk snow (yet) but certainly an active pattern for rain systems about every 5-7 days or so into November. Hopefully the weekend pattern breaks after this weekend.
For today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), we still have a trough overhead producing unsettled conditions…an atmosphere of lower heights and therefore easy to precipitate with just minor diurnal or orographic lifting. You should see some light spotty showers pushing into NNJ from the N right now. They should continue southward into the rest of NJ…again very spotty. Most of today and tomorrow will be dry but these spotty isolated showers are possible through Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night through Friday morning then looks dry with Wednesday and Thursday likely spectacular fall days. These two days have the best chance to push into the lower-70s away from the ocean. Clouds are then expected to move in between Thursday night and Friday morning with periods of rain likely from Friday afternoon through at least Saturday morning. Specific Saturday clearing timing is too uncertain from this range but there’s a chance the rain will end by Saturday afternoon, yielding a salvageable Saturday night despite wet grounds. I know this is important for Halloween-related attractions and activities (hayrides, haunts, etc.) so I will do my best to update accordingly as we closer approach. We should then expect a dry and windy (NW winds) period behind the weekend rain (for Saturday night and Sunday) as the cyclonic flow of the overall system departs and sets up a drier next week.
Monday (Oct 16) high temperatures are currently (as of Monday 2pm) maxing near the 60-degree mark. A few degrees more or less across NJ. Skies are mixed with sun and clouds. Very isolated showers are possible…cute fall cloud sprinkles. They are currently moving into NNJ and should continue pushing S. Winds are light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as the possibility for isolated spotty showers continues into Tuesday. Some spots (higher NNJ elevations + SNJ Pine Barrens) could dip just below 40 right before sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday (Oct 17) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. More isolated spotty light showers are possible through afternoon (most areas miss – even more isolated than Monday). All spotty rain chances should end Tuesday afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most NJ locations with clear skies. Some spots (higher NNJ elevations + SNJ Pine Barrens) could dip just below 40 just before sunrise Wednesday. Coastal areas should hug closer to 50.
Wednesday (Oct 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Maybe 70+ away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s/lower-70s for most NJ locations. Might see areas away from the ocean run slightly higher. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW (breezier along SNJ coasts). Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to upper-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Clouds should increase overnight into Friday morning.
Friday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Any areas that see a little sun could push just over 70. Rain should move in from the S by evening hours but possibly as early as afternoon. Periods of steady, heavy at times, rain are then expected Friday night into Saturday. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE (breezier for SNJ coasts). Overnight lows should hover in the mid-to-upper 50s.
An early look at the weekend indicates rain ending by late-Saturday afternoon, possibly by earlier Saturday afternoon. Therefore, there’s a chance Saturday evening is salvageable and especially Sunday. I know there are a lot of weekend haunt interests (hayrides, mazes, haunted attractions, etc.) following this. I will update accordingly. But for now, Friday night looks the most affected by rain and Sunday night looks the least affected. Saturday night could be dry in the sky despite wet grounds. More to come. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC